Saturday, October 16, 2021

The "30 for 30" League -- Introduction and FIRST ROUND

Thanks to the creation of the BOT and Savard's amazing simulator, a long-standing dream of mine is finally on the cusp of fruition: a 30 team draft league, where the pool of players a team can draft comes from their franchise rosters of the past 30 years (1992 to 2021). Amazingly, thirty different managers all signed up and participated in a 25 round draft!






Now lets get to the draft:

With the FIRST PICK, the Kansas City Royals selected Zack Grienke: 




Grienke brings a stellar Tier 2 card with great IP to the table, giving the Royals a foundational piece in their rotation while simultaneously robbing the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, DBacks AND Astros of a potential Tier 2 or Tier 1 starter that could slide into their rotations. Personally, I'm not a big "draft Tier 2 starter" guy, but I certainly understand the robbery appeal of this pick.

Other options: Carlos Beltran is the most obvious choice and probably would've been my pick. He's the best potential hitter for the Royals, and is highly unlikely to cycle back to KC since he's a superstar for the Mets and solid with Houston and San Fran... but with Cain, Dejesus and Damon as potential replacements, KC decided they had to lock down the former Cy Young winner!

SECOND PICK: In perhaps the most "lock it in" pick in the top 10, the Pirates wisely selected the greatest baseball player that I have ever witnessed pick up a bat and glove, the (controversial) HR leader, Barry Bonds!!! With an OB 11, 18-20 HR power, and speed A, Bonds was a no-brainer for the Pirates to lock into LF.


Other options: None, this was the guy that Pittsburgh HAD to take first. Not only did it secure their best hitter from the past 30 years, but it kept the 2001 Bonds out of San Francisco's hands (see below ;)).


THIRD PICK: Detroit had the third pick, and beloved Showdown blogger and podcast creator Jeff selected dominating ace Justin Verlander! This version of Verlander -- who took home the Cy Young and the MVP in 2011 -- is basically the O.G. Pedro Martinez card. While every team has a plethora of Tier 2 options (especially C5, on at 17 arms), guys like Verlander are extremely rare, and that extra IP will likely be helpful in resting the bullpen over 162 games.


Other Options: This was basically a "Sophie's Choice" of sorts for Detroit, with THREE clear, head-and-shoulders-above-the-rest options to choose from: (1) Verlander; (2) Miguel Cabrera; (3) Max Scherzer. Pre-draft, it was clear that whichever two weren't picked were unlikely to make it back through the snake to Detroit, as Verlander (Tier 1 in Houston), Cabrera (OB 10 and 11 cards with Florida) and Scherzer (a Tier 1 ace in Washington and Los Angeles) are all foundation-level cards for other franchises that have two picks before Detroit is back on the clock. By taking the most expensive guy possible, Detroit locked in a guaranteed ace rather than risking Verlander and Scherzer going, which would leave them with ZERO Tier 1 starters in the rotation.

FOURTH PICK: Following Detroit is the Florida Marlins, who took superstar corner outfielder Gary Sheffield! Not only did Sheffield give the Marlins flexibility and a surefire star bat (needed with a team whose stars were qualified to play for a plethora of other teams), but their GM stole a potential superstar from rival Atlanta, Los Angeles, and the Yankees in one move. However, the Marlins made it clear they weren't taking the 560 pt, OB 11/HR at 18 version, instead opting for a likely leadoff man (1997, V3):


Other options: The Marlins have seen a lot of talented players come through their organization that could have been first rounders here, including the aforementioned Miggy, 50 homer Giancarlo Stanton, Hanley Ramirez, and Brewer star Christian Yelich. However, the guy most speculated to be taken in lieu of Sheffield is *ace* Kevin Brown, who had a C6, on at 17 with no doubles card open for the Marlins. However, with a bunch of controllable talent in the rotation that the Marlins could select at leisure later in the draft, they wisely locked up Sheffield... as a result, a potential Tier 2 (or better) Kevin Brown option remains for the Orioles, Padres, Rangers, and Dodgers!

FIFTH PICK: The Orioles are another team with a ton of options that could hurt other teams (Machado, Palmeiro, Brown/Mussina), and they selected a Hall of Famer who had to be high on the board for two other franchises: 2B Roberto Alomar. An OB 10 with decent pop, Alomar is an instant top of the lineup guy that deprives rival Toronto of their best 2B option and stops the already-mighty Cleveland Guardians from adding a 500+ 2B to the team.


Other options: Mussina and Machado were the two names floated most commonly in this spot, but Machado's cards are definitely worse than controlled Melvin Mora or an option like Bobby Bonilla, and the Orioles are in the same lengthwave as me regarding Tier 2 starting pitchers like Mussina -- far too common and replaceable to spend a Top 5 Round pick on (sorry KC). As a result, Padres are celebrating, and the Rangers have a good shot at a superstar 1B option.

SIXTH PICK: The Colorado Rockies "Coors Field effect" translates extremely well to Showdown. Everyone is expecting them to absolutely mash in this simulation, and they met that expectation in Round 1 with superstar, do-it-all 680 pt CF Ellis Burks.


Other options: The Rockies had to risk it on one of their two 650+ point OF -- Burks or hall-of-famer Larry Walker, who put up 800+ point card during his MVP season in 1997. The Rockies chose the speed A CF over the corner outfielder, deciding to cross their fingers that the Expos don't snatch up Walker on the way back.

SEVENTH PICK: San Diego benefited from the Marlins decision by selecting Kevin Brown, who gives them their first of the Tier 2, no doubles starters that their manager definitely wanted to target in the draft. San Diego did not have a lot of "hotly contested" stars they needed to steal, so Brown was a natural fit.


Other options: Maybe Machado or Greg Vaughn, but they didn't seem likely to go early. Perhaps they could've locked up franchise legend Trevor Hoffman, but it seems far too early to draft a closer.

EIGHTH PICK: The Rays continued the run on starting pitching by locking up their former Cy Young winner, David Price! Not only is Price a nice foundational piece for a team (like SD) without a lot of hotly contested position players they need to lock up in Round 1, but it takes away a strong starter from division rivals Toronto and Boston, as well as away from Detroit.


Other options: Realistically, none. Great pick!

NINTH PICK: The Milwaukee Brewers locked down one of their best hitters from the past three decades and locked in their clean-up hitter with Prince Fielder! This dude can absolutely crush the baseball and, even in this super league, there are not a lot of OB 10, HR at 17 bats out there to smash dingers.


Other options: I think most managers were picturing CC Sabathia to Milwaukee, giving them a strong Tier 2 arm with lots of IP in the rotation and robbing Cleveland and the Yankees of a Tier 2. However, drafting Prince was the only way to guarantee that Fielder and Milwaukee's other star (Christian Yelich) would both be secured prior to Detroit and Florida have two opportunities each to rob Milwaukee of much needed star power.

TENTH PICK: The Cincinnati Reds selected problematic Trevor Bauer with their first round pick. He was expected to give them the ONLY Tier 0 starting pitching card in the draft. However..... devastating for the Reds, despite Bauer winning the Cy Young and pitching over 70 innings in 2020, he only made 11 starts and his card didn't qualify. Due to the no dropping rule, the Reds were forced to adjust and roster his Tier 3, Control 4 card from 2019. Truly a punch to the gut for this team, which could have stolen Ken Griffey Jr. or locked in Tier 1 Cueto/closer Chapman. 

However, ever the good sport, when told about his mistake, the manager made no complaints and simply stated that he felt this was "karma" for drafting Bauer at all. In doing so, he got a fifth starter at replacement level, but also prevented state-rival Cleveland from gaining a star pitcher, so that's something. Anyway, here's the ACE that he assumed he'd be getting..... big loss here for Cinci!


Other options: In retrospect, easy to say that locking up Tier 1 Cueto or snagging Griffey was the move, but I think we all assumed Bauer qualified with how much he pitched in 2020 (nearly 7 IP/start).

ELEVENTH PICK: The Twins continued the run on aces with the next pick, snagging Minnesota icon (and arguable hall of famer) Johan Santana with their first pick! Santana locks in a Tier One with the ability to go deep into games, definitely a great pick. Considering how good the cards he put up while he was in a Mets uniform (seriously!), Santana likely wouldn't have made it back to the Twins in Round 2.


Other options: Like the Rays, none really justifiable at the #1 pick, unless they wanted to be real jerks and snag Jim Thome as their DH before he was up for the Guardians, Phillies and White Sox.

TWELTH PICK: Arizona kept the contested Tier 1 streak going, locking up the much-wanted Randy Johnson from the Mariners and Astros. The BIG UNIT gives Arizona an absolute anchor to the rotation and looks like he'll be an absolute animal with his Tier 1 card!


Other options: The primary place Arizona could've gone instead was another Tier 1 pitcher who's been good for multiple other squads -- Curt Schilling. While Schilling had a Tier 1 season with the DBacks too, he's not as iconic and I think had a better shot of making it past the pitching rich Red Sox and Phillies than Johnson did of coming back around. Another darkhorse pick would be JD Martinez, who had a MONSTER 2017 season in Arizona and definitely top round potential in Boston with his power there, but he's another one more likely to come back. A really sensible pick with Randy.

THIRTEENTH PICK: The Tier 1 hits won't stop coming, as the Expos/Nationals selected Pedro Martinez, thereby robbing the Red Sox of a potential Control 5, on at 19 version. This pick isn't just to steal though, as Martinez was putting up "OG 01 Card" stats with Montreal and gives them a frightening top of the line ace to throw out there... if they pair him with Scherzer in R2 and Strasburg later on... wowza! Furthermore, I expect Pedro to lead the league in complete games.


Other Options: Besides Pedro, the Expos could have been justified in locking in Scherzer (similar but cheaper Tier 1) before he got around to the Dodgers twice or picking MVP Bryce Harper, probably the best potential hitter for the franchise, before the Phillies got two cracks at him. There's also studs like Vlad Guerrero and Trea Turner who are potentially open to thievery that they could lock in, but c'mon -- Pedro is the best pitcher in Showdown all the time and an icon, the Expos needed him!

FOURTEENTH PICK: Seattle breaks the ace trend by snagging their franchise SS in another no-brainer move, locking up Alex Rodriguez. Not only does this prevent the Rangers from getting a 600+ SS, but stops the mighty Yankees from getting a 50+ HR power A-Rod at 3B. 


Other options: With Griffey safe until Round 2 and Randy gone, this was 100% the play -- no debate from anyone, simply a great pick!

FIFTEENTH PICK: Next up was the first catcher off the board, as the Mets locked in a 600+ monster behind the plate! I think it'll be extremely rare for a manager to plug in an OB 10, HR at 17 middle-of-the-order beast behind the plate in this league, creating a much deeper lineup than most. Considering the pitching bonanza in the NL East, that may be huge! Furthermore, this guaranteed Piazza since the Dodgers had to be chomping at the bit to lock in Piazza with either of their two picks before the Mets came up again -- strong selection!


Other options: Another strong option was Carlos Beltra, who also had a 600+ point card available for the Mets. However, he's less likely to be snagged by the Astros or Giants than Piazza is by the Dodgers, and there are a lot of strong OF replacement options, so this was a smart roll of the dice.  

SIXTEENTH PICK: The Cubs bring back the 90s aces by drafting yet another Hall of Famer --- Greg Maddux! While he's a Tier 2, I *do* like this pick because it steals maybe the best option at SP in the game away from Atlanta... plus, that IP 8 is huge for the bullpen over 162. That said, considering guaranteed arms like Hendricks and Prior, plus dudes like Wood, Lester and ARRIETA that the Cubs have to choose from, I'm not sure if he's even going to be a front-of-the-rotation piece.


Other options: Another pick that makes perfect sense -- keeps a Tier 0 arm out of Atlanta while providing extreme value. None of their other main targets (Sosa, Lee) were in danger here.


(what the cubs kept out of the league... wowza)

SEVENTEENTH PICK: With their first selection, Philadelphia snagged the FOURTH Hall of Fame starter in six selections with Roy Halladay! "Doc Halladay" was almost certainly on the Blue Jays' board and wouldn't have been back around for the Phillies, so they pounced on him and locked in a solid Control 5, on at 17 guy who can go deep into games.


Other options: With no doubles and great IP, it's easy to understand the Halladay pick. However, I think his level of card is a dime-a-dozen from the last 30 years and easy to replace for Philly, whereas Cole Hamels had a Tier 1 card before being up twice for the Rangers. Another guy that would've made sense was Scott Rolen, who was almost a lock to go to St. Louis if the Phillies passed on him.

EIGHTEENTH PICK: The Blue Jays kept the starting pitching train rolling, snagging another Tier 1 but not a member of the Hall of Fame (yet).... Roger Clemens. The Cy Young machine put up a stout card for the Jays, giving them an ace and letting them rob an ace from division rival Boston, as well as Houston and the Yankees.

Other options: With Alomar and Halladay off the board, and a crack at Olerud/Delgado in R2 before the other teams they played for, this was the move!

NINETEENTH PICK: Wowza, just a run on Control 6, IP 8 guys in this draft!! Now it's the Rangers turn to add an ace in Cliff Lee, robbing from the Guardians and Phillies, and I had no idea he was this good in the 2010 Rangers season... but I guess that's how he led them to a World Series berth! Definitely a cornerstone to build the pitching around for a team that's likely going to lean heavy on hitting after this pick!


Other options: I thought they'd lock in a guy like Palmeiro, but he'd come around in R2 before Baltimore. Other options (since A-Rod was gone) included Mark Teixeira and Juan Gonzalez, or the sneaky pick of Cole Hamels. Maybe they could've guaranteed Pudge behind the plate here as well. I think the biggest potential draft pick was 3B Adrian Beltre, who's got to be high on the Dodgers and Red Sox list.... but I love this Tier 1, massive innings eater selection.

TWENTIETH PICK: What a shocker... another Tier 1 ace! The White Sox lock in Chris Sale before the Red Sox can take him, giving us our FIFTH ace in a row and 11th ace selected since the seventh pick!! Hard to find anything to criticize here -- absolute stud who should anchor the rotation.


Other options: White Sox could have played spoiler to Cleveland here by snagging Thome (OB 10, HR at 17 option with White Sox) or Albert Belle (also has OB 10, HR at 17) potential. Both those guys are likely going in the next two rounds, but Sale was also going to be gone... White Sox opted for securing the rotation over taking more easily replaced hitters, particularly with the wealth of OF and 1B talent they amassed in the past 30 years.

TWENTY-FIRST PICK: The Angels break the run on starting pitchers by snagging 1B Mark Teixeira! Honestly, I was shocked by how good this card is -- OB 10, HR at 18, with lots of XBH and +2 defense for under 550 points! Considering the Yankees and Atlanta were coming up, this locked him in and also guarantees that Tex couldn't come back around to Texas in Round 2. 


Other options: Angels were one of the hardest teams to get a read on prior to the draft, as there were many directions they could go in R1. Considering their depth at some positions, it was not out of the realm of possibility they would play spoiler and snag Pujols or Josh Hamilton. They could also have taken MVP Vlad Guerrero or started a run on relievers with K-Rod. That said, I think this was an absolutely awesome pick and great first piece to their puzzle.

TWENTY-SECOND PICK: The first true stunner of the draft -- the Astros lock in Billy Wagner, the first closer selected! Billy is forever a showdown legend and it feels right that Houston snagged him because of his top-notch 00 card. As a 340 point, Tier 0 with no xbh... Wagner is a BEAST! The selection also robbed the Mets, Atlanta, Phillies and Red Sox of Tier 1 or better relief options! A gutsy and inspired selection!


Other options: The primary option people expected was Tier 1 Gerrit Cole! The Astros lineup is loaded with controlled talent, so we all expected pitchers, but a closer in round one was unexpected... however, it's a smart play considering the depth at SP and all the teams this robbed from, as well as potentially forcing other teams to start reaching for bullpen arms.

TWENTY-THIRD PICK: Poor San Francisco. Already, they had their two best position players (Bonds and Burks) taken from them. Good thing there's another contested MVP for them to select, 2B Jeff Kent! A legend in the original 01 set, our good pal/blogger Matt selected the Bot version for extra position flexibility! He's no 2001 Bonds, but this Kent should still play a key role at the top of his lineup.


Other options: Honestly, not many viable options here other than Kent. Beltran will be available on the swing, and he had to make sure the Dodgers didn't take ANOTHER top bat from him.

TWENTY-FOURTH PICK: Oakland took potentially the best power hitter in the league here, Mark McGwire!! Not only does this rob the Cardinals of 70 HR McGwire, but it gives them an OB 11, HR at 16 behemoth to plug into the 3-hole. What a BEAST.


Other options: This was the call, although there's an argument (I guess) for taking Giambi away from the Yankees. This seems like the 100% right pick though.

TWENTY-FIFTH PICK: Next up was the Guardians, who locked in a star corner-outfielder -- Manny Ramirez! Manny brings an OB 10, HR at 17 card to the squad, and he was unlikely to make it back from the Dodgers and Red Sox. Definitely provides Cleveland with a stellar #3 hitter to lock in too.


Other options: Cleveland must've been considering Cy Young CC after he fell past the Brewers, but the bigger options were likely Thome and Belle, the two guys in danger of being snagged by the White Sox if they don't take them now. I also like Belle's cards more than Manny, but they're pretty similar. 

TWENTY-SIXTH PICK: The St. Louis Cardinals followed with an absolutely balanced hitter in Scott Rolen. St. Louis is managed by old card creator mainstay Kyle, and we all knew he'd go for the hitters early... what a find this guy was! OB 10, HR at 18 with 3B+5 (!!) for 550 points. WOWZA.


Other options: Locking down the nearly 600 point JD Drew before the Red Sox, Dodgers and Atlanta had two cracks at him is tempting, as well as selecting their franchise cornerstone Albert Pujols to make sure the Dodgers don't use all their guaranteed talent to solely act as thieves early by robbing St. Louis.

TWENTY-SEVENTH PICK: The Dodgers locked up perhaps the best 3B in the draft with Adrian Beltre, who put together a MONSTER card in 2004. This guy does it all, with 16-20 HR pop on an OB 9, speed B, singles starting at 6, and incredible +4 defense. 


Other options: The Dodgers could've gone in many directions, as they've rostered a ton of super talented players who've also played for other teams... they also have so much controlled talent that they could've just played spoiler early and then filled in a star-studded, Dodgers-only lineup later! Here, they could've gone with Mookie, Scherzer, Shawn Green, Turner, or Pujols and no one would've blinked.

TWENTY-EIGHTH PICK: In another stunning selection, despite Mookie Betts surviving the Dodgers, the Red Sox selecting Koi Uehara. Yes, he would've been guaranteed in Round 2, but they wanted to send a statement to the league with a Tier -1 (!!!) closer!! This also prevents him from being taken in the next go-round by Baltimore or Texas, where he put up Tier 1 cards.


Other options: Mookie Betts and Curt Schilling come to mind, but this squad was decimated by options being stolen from them (Pedro, Clemens, Sale and Manny). Definitely stunning that MVP Mookie didn't get grabbed here.

TWENTY-NINTH PICK: Atlanta was another victim of massive steals (Maddux, Sheffield, Wagner, Teixeira), but their manager "rushed to the podium" to select *Tier 3* Tim Hudson in round 1, stealing him from Oakland. Timmy's run in Atlanta really is underrated, and he put up a stout 540 point card. I am worried about his Control 4 in this league, and more so think he could've been available several rounds later or replaced by an Atlanta only pitcher without any drop off later on.


Other options: ATL is truly so loaded that they can replace anyone lost with elite talent later, thanks to controlled options like Acuna, Albies, Riley, Freeman and (of course) CHIPPER! That said, it was surprising that elite catcher Javy Lopez, 600 point Fred McGriff or do-it-all OF JD Drew weren't the selection, nor did they lock down Tom Glavine. This was the most surprising selection to me in the first round.

THIRTIETH PICK: With the final pick of the first round, the Yankees got an ACE that not many expected to make it past Houston, their big free agent signing of the 2019/2020 offseason, Gerrit Cole!!! With Cole, like so many teams did, the Yankees locked in their #1 starter at the Tier 1 level, which seems to be a "must" in this league.


Other options: Locked down a Tier 1 ace that many assumed would be gone, this was a great pick for them. No other big options over Cole to consider, but maybe they could've gone Giambi/LeMahieu at the top? They needed Cole, so just an A+ pick.

Ok, that sums up the first round!!! Let me know who you thought made the best pick, and guys you think will go in later rounds! Next up will be the different divisions w/the complete rosters accompanied by thoughts from the managers on their team, the draft and season predictions! Thanks for reading and stay tuned :) 

Special shout outs to Matt Gula for the BOT and some of the card images, for Kevin for some card images, WDR for the Koji card, and Matt for some card images!

3 comments:

  1. I LOVE this idea and look forward to some other future picks. Hoping that nobody does my Twins dirty, though.

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    Replies
    1. Right??? It was honestly such a fun draft -- really big shout out to the community for 30 different managers, located coast to coast, doing this draft!

      I'll make sure to get each team's rosters out there, but as a little sneak peak, your Twins got legends Mauer and Kirby to support legends Johan and Nathan!

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  2. the Scott Rolen and Cliff Lee cards are my favorite. Awesome!

    ReplyDelete