The Card that Broke MLB Showdown

This site makes MLB Showdown cards with the 00/01 MLB Showdown formulas and emulates the design style of the 00 set. However, there were four more sets of original MLB Showdown cards after the 01 set, just with a very different calculus involved. Instead of a high of OB 11, it became OB 14 and on-base numbers as a whole went way up (while charts became more tame to account for batters getting their own charts more frequently). Some may say this design change was a way to add more dynamic gameplay, but we here at Greatest MLB Showdown project point to one player's amazing, untouchable, possibly illegally enhanced 2001 season of Barry Bonds, the season where the original MLB Showdown cards shifted their formulas. Well, we decided to make the 2001 Barry Bonds card according to original MLB Showdown calculations.

Pictured: the MLB Showdown 2002 card for the 73-HR Barry Bonds, aka the card that broke MLB Showdown

Frankly, we kind of get it, because 2001 Barry Bonds completely breaks the Showdown game. Just look at that 17-20 HR range at OB 14. Imagine putting that card in a OB 11 card! Well.... we did it anyway!

For most, the thing that first jumps off the chart is a 15-20 HR range (which is an insane advantage on an OB 8 hitter) is on a flipping OB 11 card. While it's tempting to say we exaggerated, remember the original card had a 17-20 HR on an OB 14, which if we made a pure translation from the OB 14 to 11, would translate normally to a 14-20.

But to really sell that this 15-20 HR range on an OB 11 is an accurate reflection of 2001 Bonds, let's look at the numbers! The average Showdown pitcher Bonds will face has a Control 4. Thus, approximately 35% (7/20) of the times you use the Bonds card he should get his chart. Since 30% of his possible chart results are HRs (15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 = 6/20 options), we can see that 35% x 30% = 10.5%, which means 10.5% of this Barry Bonds card's plate appearances should result in a HR. That's *crazy* impressive and has to be an exaggeration, there's no way someone could hit a homer in over 10% of their plate appearances, right??? Well... here's Bonds pertinent stats from 2001, so you can see for yourself. 664 is his PAs, 73 is the HRs, 32 is the doubles amount, 177 is his walks, with .328 as Bonds average and .515 as his OBP.

So do the basic math, 73HR/664PAs = 10.993976%. That's right, Barry Bonds essentially hit a HR 11% of the time he stepped up to the plate in 2001. Now, we went with the slightly under version because if we gave Barry a OB 11, HR at 14 (.35% x .35%) his HR rate would be 12.25% of his plate appearances which is too high.... however, it's insane that the preposterous, unheard of average HR rate for a Showdown card of 10.5% is *underrating* what the player actually did that season!! The original MLB Showdown 2002 Card had a 10% homer rate (50% chart chance x 20% homer chance), so our 11 homering at 15 is very close to accurate too.

Perhaps the most controversial element of the card will be how Bonds walks at 2 rather than 3. On a most basic level, his actual OBP was .515. In the 01 set, Jason Giambi is an OB 11 who reaches at 3 and his OBP was .476. So for an increase in OBP by a whole .035 points, it makes sense that Bonds earns an extra bump on his chart.

More mathematically, using the average Control 4, allows a baserunner at 17 Pitcher, Bonds will reach 13% of the time based on the pitcher getting their own chart (65% x 20%). So in the 35% of the time Bonds gets his chart, he's already behind the ball for his .515 OBP. The best he can do is .35 + .13 for .480 OBP. Frankly... it was tempting to just give Barry a card that doesn't have an out on it, but that seemed like too broken a card (in a card that's already unfairly amazing). Thus, the actual average OBP for Bonds would be 33.25% + 13% and .463 OBP, against the average Control 4 on at 17 pitcher. Now, Barry will be helped out by inevitably facing weaker pitchers and just being a lucky roller, but what this math is demonstrating is that the problem with making Bonds for the original Showdown makers wasn't making him *too strong* with the original formula, but not being capable of properly giving him stats!!! Although, this slightly nerfed OBP should rise with the usage of strategy cards, making it a much more accurate version (I've just never liked using them).

Meanwhile, the OB 14 card has 10% of ABs resulting in getting OB off the pitcher, while adding 37.5% reach rate on his own chart, giving him a .475 average OBP -- slightly better than the OB 11 on at 2 card and closer to his real life .515 OBP. I would've made him reach at 5 if I was making the OB 14 card, because then he would've had a .513 average OBP, but they must've been factoring in the strategy cards.

Overall, this exercise was really enlightening into how exactly Barry Bonds broke the Showdown formulas and created the 02-05 Showdown sets. It also surprised me a lot how this absolutely insane, salary cap bursting while being totally epic Bonds card hits homers and gets on-base at a lower rate than his real life counterpart did. Honestly, even if he did steroids, this exercise also increased my respect for Barry Bonds' hitting skill and awe at the numbers he put up in 2001. I feel pretty confident that we will never see such a display of power and consistency again. I hope you've enjoyed this, let me know what you think about this Bonds card and more importantly feel free to print/use this card (especially in a non salary cap league :P) where I'm sure he'll be an absolute terror!!!