MLB Showdown -- SUPER LEAGUE (year one)

 So to those that follow me on twitter/discord, you know that I celebrated my birthday in the spring with a little "Showdown" battle between the Expos and Nationals at a random small town library, hiding from the hail on a solo hiking adventure:

Well, that quickly changed into me playing out a 31 team league --> 18 man rosters, teams with salary caps of 8000 or 8250 points, depending on how big or small market the team was, since I wanted to play with the best-of-the-best from the previous 20ish years... I made the teams out of players from the original set to the present, with a special little tweak allowing cards of players from before 1999 if they had a card in the original set (so the Royals could use Saberhagen, Yankees/A's used Rickey Henderson, etc.)... because of the massive amount of games I had to play, I didn't keep stats this time beyond the wins and losses, but it made the simulation much less of a chore (and much more of a reward at the end of a hard day on the road). I thought the "big market" squads may dominate because of the small salary cap advantage, but it turns out that at a certain level, the teams are just so incredible that it really just feels like a "who's getting the lucky rolls this time" match up (just like I drew it up ;)). 

Rather than just previewing it and forcing y'all to wait months and months on the simulation, I just jumped right into the games and now, I've got all the regular season results for you! Enjoy!!

Final Standings:

AL East Summary: The powerful Yankees - who have the most stacked lineup in the American League - crushed their way through the division, putting up a 30-18 record vs their AL East rivals, including an 8-4 record against the hated Red Sox, who were second-best in the division at 25-23. Despite only going 6-6 in cross-division games, the Yankees will be the #1 seed in the AL as a result. The Red Sox/Blue Jays didn't do anything to catch up to the Yankees during that time period, also going 6-6 to finish 31-29 and 30-30, respectively. The Orioles hung around all year but finished an expected 27-33, while the Rays offense was consistently stymied too much en route to a disappointing 25-35 season. 

The key for the Yankees, besides just having such a potent lineup that they could breakthrough against the aces of other teams in the division, was the bullpen. They went five deep and Chad Green was a total stud, often coming in to lock things down and flip momentum if things went awry early. It'll be interesting to see if aggressive bullpen usage continues for the Yankees in the postseason!

Did the Yankees rely on two Tier 3 starters? Yes... did it end up hurting them? Not when Chad Green is leading a bullpen of absolute nightmares for hitters and the lineup starts with Rickey, Judge, A-Rod and Giambi!

AL Central Summary: Unlike the AL East, this was a dramatic race to the title the whole way, and really felt like a four-way race until near the end of the season when Chicago and Cleveland pulled away by both going 8-4 in series against Detroit and Minnesota. At the end of divisional play, Chicago held a slim advantage, 28-20 over Cleveland's 27-21, with Detroit and Minnesota sitting at 23-25. Both contenders went 7-5 against their cross-divisional opponents, ending the year with Chicago taking the crown by a nose at 35-25 and Cleveland holding the top wild card spot at 34-26. The White Sox's success can be largely credited to their wealth of power bats, sending out OB 11, HR at 17 Frank Thomas; OB 10, HR at 17 Albert Belle; OB 10, HR at 17 Jim Thome and OB 10, HR at 17 Jermaine Dye one after another in the middle of the lineup. They've got the #2 seed and a bye into the ALDS, while Cleveland will be hosting the Wild Card round and hoping to get another crack at the Yankees, against whom they went 4-2 in cross-divisional play!

The White Sox lineup is discussed above, but I have to give another shout out to Matt for an incredible cut out for Tim Anderson.... and make a first shout out to the most potent 1-2-3 bullpen in the game, which has to make them feel confident heading into a tight playoff picture!

AL West Summary: This was a wild four-team race that resulted in three teams getting playoff berths. The Astros (unsurprisingly) were the early front runner, jetting out to a 25-17 start.... but then a 1-5 slump against the Angels (who were holding steady at 22-20) flipped the race and put the Angels (!!) in the driving seat at the end of divisional play. Going into cross-division games, Angels (27-23) had that one game lead over the Astros (26-22) and the Mariners (26-22), with the A's hanging around (24-24). In a big surprise for me, the Rangers flat out stunk all year, going 17-31 against their rivals, with their OB 9 power bats struggling to find consistency against the elite, high-control pitching they faced day-in, day-out. 

In a shocking twist, the Astros let their slump continue, going 2-4 against the Yankees in what felt like an ALCS preview, before finishing 2-4 against the Tigers (of all teams), resulting in a paltry .500 record for the season and missing the postseason! Up north, the Angels rode their hot streak just enough, going 4-2 against the Twins in their final series to push them to 34-26 on the year. That was just enough to stay ahead of the surging A's, who head into the playoffs on absolute fire after taking 4/6 from the Orioles and 5/6 from the Royals, ending the year on a 9-3 run and with a 33-27 record that gives them the #5 seed. Meanwhile, the Mariners had a solid enough 6-6 cross-division record to sneak into the #6 seed and will face the Angels in round 1... an Angels team that won the division but Seattle went 8-4 against during the regular season! This was the best division in baseball, and will be the only one to send three teams to the postseason this year!

NL East Summary: This is the only division that went all inter-divisional games, thanks to being the rare division with six teams. Thus, each team played their divisional foe 12 times, leading to a contentious and rivalry filled season! From the jump, it felt clear that the Phillies, Mets and Braves were set to be a three-headed monster. They definitely picked on the Marlins (who had a KILLER rotation that I thought may make them a dark horse, but the weaker backend bullpen made things tough when starters got roughed up early/extra inning games)... but the Expos and Nationals were more scrappy than anticipated. With 12 games to go, the Phillies had a slim lead at 28-20 and the Mets (26-22) and Braves (26-22) right on their heels. However, the Mets/Braves struggled both went 2-4 against the Phillies, helping them ease their way to a 36-24 finish; then the Mets finished on fire with a 5-1 showing against the Marlins to end the year at 33-27, while the Braves couldn't quite get it done vs the Expos, splitting the six-game series to end the year at a disappointing 31-29. 

For the playoffs, the Phillies wrapped up one of the key bye slots in the National League at the #2 seed, awaiting the winner of the mini "NL Central" bowl in the Wild Card round, while the Mets are going to take on the Rockies in the "33-27" bowl sit to occur in Denver.

Harper, Howard and Thome were an insane core for this offense, with Speed A guys in the 8, 9 and 1 holes providing lots of scoring opportunities... pitching wise, the moral of the story is "find a Control 6, IP 7, Tier 2 pitcher at only 510 points" if you can, it gives a HUGE advantage (12-3 in Lee starts).

NL Central Summary: This was easily the most evenly matched division in the league, with no team able to win more than four consecutive games during divisional play (Cubs and Pirates both had a mini run of four straight). By the time divisional play ended, the Reds/Pirates were both 25-23, the Brewers were 24-24, and the Cardinals/Cubs were 23-25. Needless to say, the division title was anyone's game! It looked like Pittsburgh (for the first time ever in simulations I've done) were going to get it done after they went 4-2 against Arizona (while the Reds went 3-3 vs the Giants), and then the Pirates went to San Fran and went 4-2 against the best team in baseball..... but then the Reds went 5-1 against Arizona, leading to a tie atop the division at 33-27. Thanks to a 7-5 H2H record in favor of the Reds, Cincinnati takes the crown.... but Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will square off in the Wild Card round as the 3 vs 6 seed.

NL West Summary: I thought the Dodgers were a mortal lock to win this division, but I underestimated 920 pt. Barry Bonds' influence over San Fran's lineup, which rode a Posey-Bonds-Kent-Williams big four to an absolutely dynamic 19-6 start to the year, including a going a perfect 6/6 vs the vaunted Dodgers. They went a "mere" 21-14 the rest of the way, but that cruise control was more than enough to ease into the #1 seed in the NL (and the best record by far in the league). Meanwhile, the Dodgers went 26-16 in all other divisional games... which saw them three games ahead of Colorado entering the final cross-divisional games of the year. However, LA went 3-3 vs the Cubs and 3-3 vs the Cardinals while the Rockies went 5-1 against the Cardinals and 5-1 against my beloved Brewers to sneak ahead of the Dodgers in the final standings and take a wild card spot! Colorado was 23-25 in divisional play, but finished 33-27 thanks to an offensive explosion down the stretch... their starting pitching led to a bunch of blowout losses during the year, but in the end, the amazing offense/dynamic bullpen will make them a dangerous team in the wild card round.

Did you expect *this* team to run away with the best record in baseball? Barry Bonds was worth his 920 points and would run away with MVP vote if I kept stats... and with Jeff Kent/Matt Williams behind him, intentional walks often led to BIG innings for the Giants. Especially when Brandon Belt or Ellis Burks got their charts. Obviously, the pitching is stellar too, helping the Giants win a lot of 5-3, 4-2 type games. It'll be interesting to see how they fare in the postseason!

Playoff bracket:

And here's your look at the playoff teams playing in the Wild Card round:

#3 Angels (34-28) vs #6 Mariners (32-28)

This is going to be a very fun match-up -- the Mariners have a fantastic top half of a lineup and one of the best collection of pitchers in the playoffs: a pair of Tier 1 starters, a pair of Tier 0 relievers and a Tier 1 closer.... in the regular season, they did a great job of slowing down the probable AL MVP Mike Trout and the power behind him, including the Ohtani/Napoli "OB 9, HR at 16" combo that caused headaches for many pitchers during the season. 

#4 Guardians (34-28) vs #5 Athletics (33-27)

These two lineups are about to go strength on strength in the first round... Cleveland has all the usual suspects: Lofton, Alomar, Ramirez, Belle, Thome... as fearsome a five-some as you'll find in Showdown! With Clase and Miller in the bullpen, supporting Cy Young winners Lee and Sabathia, they've got some high leverage arms to use too! However, the small budget A's have something no one else in the postseason does -- the best "1-2-3" punch in the game, OB 11 Henderson, OB 11 Giambi, OB 11 McGwire. BIG MAC settled into the three hole after underwhelming in the two spot, a catalyst for the surge to the #5 seed that the A's had down the stretch... outside of Colorado, the A's are the hottest team in (showdown) baseball!

#3 Reds (33-27) vs #6 Pirates (33-27)

The Reds are hosting this wild card round by the slimmest of margins -- a 7-5 record against Pittsburgh in the regular season! Cincy's strength is their rotation, bolstered by the Tier 1 studs Trevor Bauer and Johnny Cueto, along with a stout bullpen full of closers. The lineup has a lot of good speed and power, along with a nice +11 infield supporting the arms. All that said, the Pirates have FOUR Tier 1 arms in the bullpen and FOUR amazing outfielders, led (of course) by the incomparable Barry Bonds. Needless to say, these teams are not usually in playoffs in my leagues (Cardinals and Brewers tend to win the NL Central), so I'm really looking forward to playing this one!!

#4 Rockies (33-27) vs #5 Mets (33-27)

The Rockies are the hottest team in baseball, sizzling into the playoffs on a 10-2 roll. With seven OB 10 or better hitters and two amazing OB 9 hitters (along with a +11 infield), they have a great claim to the best collection of hitters around. Larry Walker was a particular wrecking machine this season, although Burks and Helton would have strong All Star arguments too. The bullpen is stout for four arms, helping a rotation that (compared to the others in the league) seems like its held together with duct tape. All that said... they're running into a buzzsaw in the New York Mets. DeGrom is the best pitcher in the game (10-5 in his starts), with Tier 1 Pedro backing him up. The bullpen is LOADED and the lineup is stacked with speed and superstars: Rickey, Reyes, Beltran, Delgado, Piazza, Wright, the Polar Bear, Alfonso.... this is a Gula dream!!!! Last of all, we've got Cespedes, one of the very few OB 7 hitters in the league... but he won at least two games almost singlehandedly this year, and could go absolutely nuts against this weak Rockies' pitching!

MY PREDICTIONS:

NL Wild Card: Reds over Pirates; Mets over Rockies

AL Wild Card: Mariners over Angels; A's over Guardians

NLDS: Phillies over Reds; Mets over Giants

ALDS: Yankees over A's; Mariners over White Sox

NLCS: Phillies over Mets

ALCS: Yankees over Mariners 

WORLD SERIES -- Phillies over Yankees

Hope you enjoyed some Showdown action during your holiday season, stay tuned for playoff results! Feel free to drop your predictions below, show me that you know more than I do about what'll happen ;)