The Krush Test

Over on twitter @mlbshowdowncup there was a discussion about Khris Davis and his dominance the last two days. Thanks to someone saying they tested him on 10 at bats sparking a conversation I decided to go all in on the 2018 set, plus a few pennant run cards that were added. Khris Davis vs the entire pitcher set twice. This would equal out to 546 plate appearances, almost in the sweet spot of where we like our players to be when we are calculating their stats for a cards chart. Now my disclaimer is I really enjoy analyzing stats. This post is probably going to go way over board and for that I don't apologize because I had so much fun doing it. So lets break this thing on down from a number stand point.

Here we have the 2018 special edition Krush Davis card, what a beauty. When facing different types of pitchers ranging from 0-6 in control he has many different opportunities to strike. Here are the percentages of him getting the advantage against each style of pitcher. 

PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVANTAGE
VS 0	35%
VS 1	30%
VS 2	25%
VS 3	20%
VS 4	15%
VS 5	10%
VS 6	5%

Once he gets the advantage here are the percentages of what he can do on his own chart.

CHART PERCENTAGE
SO	25%
GB	0%
FB	0%
BB	20%
1B	5%
1B+	0%
2B	10%
3B	0%
HR	40%

Are you all still with me? good, lets take a look at the statistics from 2018 that earned Krush this card.

	PA'S	AB'S	OB%	AVG.	HITS	2BS	HRS	KS	BBS
2018	654	576	0.326	0.247	142	28	48	175	59

Now for the meat of the data, here is what happened when I rolled the twenty sided die against every pitcher randomized twice.

	PA'S	AB'S	OB%	AVG.	HITS	2BS	HRS	KS	BBS	ADV
Sim	546	489	0.315	0.235	115	30	47	184	57	19.6%

Advantage	so	pu	gb	fb	bb	1b	2b	hr
107	184	29	69	92	57	38	30	47

The totals from all the different results he had.

These numbers are not that far off from his regular season last year. If he got the full 654 at bats it could have been even deadlier, with more KRUSHING. He gained the advantage 107 times out of his 546 plate appearances, and this may be my favorite comparison so far. When he was hitting with the advantage here is his results vs what his real percentages are that was shown above. 

CHART PERCENTAGE
SO	25%
BB	20%
1B	5%
2B	10%
HR	40%
ADVANTAGE RESULTS %
K 28	26.17%
BB 24	22.43%
1B 4	3.74%
2B 5	4.67%
HR 45	42.06%

He really performed almost exactly how the card would dictate once he gained the advantage. He also hit 2 home runs off of the pitchers chart in the process on his way to 47 bombs.

How about how he did against the different control levels, refer to the percentage of chances chart from earlier if you needed a reminder. 

5%	VS 6
PA	20
HR	1
AVG	0.368
ADV	1
ADV%	5%

Against the 6 control pitchers it was basically what we expected, he had 20 plate appearances and gained the advantage 1 time, homering off of poor Pedro Strop.

10%	VS 5
PA	54
HR	3
AVG	0.286
ADV	5
ADV%	9%

 Against 5 control is was almost the same story as predicted a 10% chance at gaining the advantage and he did it 9% of the time. Craig Stammen got taken yard in both his at bats against him.

15%	VS 4
PA	92
HR	6
AVG	0.235
ADV	12
ADV%	13%

When it came to facing the 4's he was close again to the percentage. His average keeps falling but there are plenty more plate appearances as we move down the list. 

20%	VS 3
PA	136
HR	11
AVG	0.248
ADV	20
ADV%	15%

Facing the 3 controls we had a 5% difference in gaining the advantage versus what his probability actually was. Lucky rolls from the pitching staff. He still went yard 11 times and started climbing his average up.

25%	VS 2
PA	124
HR	12
AVG	0.201
ADV	32
ADV%	26%

Personally this is the most disappointing category for me because he was ahead on the advantage percents and only had 12 home runs and his lowest average so far. 7 strikeouts from his own chart were wasted opportunities to add to the home run and batting average totals.

30%	VS 1
PA	78
HR	8
AVG	0.208
ADV	23
ADV%	29%

Against the 1 control pitchers he was right on the mark for advantage and had a terrible batting average against some weaker controlled pitchers. Likely when facing a 1 control they are out through 17 or 18, so the other 55 at bats without the advantage are a lot tougher to get a hit against.

35%	VS 0
PA	42
HR	6
AVG	0.184
ADV	14
ADV%	33%

The lower control pitchers really did a number on Khris as you would think this is where hes really going to punish these guys.  Like said before most the low control have favorable charts once they gain the advantage, and it proved to be true in this category as well.

That was a lot of data, cue Billy Mays, But wait there's more....

I'm going to break down how he did against each team as well. so get ready here it comes. 

Team	PA	HR	AVG	ADV	ADV%
Angels	18	2	0.200	4	22.00%
Astros	18	0	0.267	0	0.00%
Athletics	20	0	0.167	2	10.00%
Blue Jays	18	0	0.063	2	11.11%
Braves	18	3	0.313	4	22.22%
Brewers	18	3	0.357	3	16.67%
Cardinals	18	0	0.200	6	33.33%
Cubs	18	2	0.375	2	11.11%
D-Backs	18	2	0.313	6	33.33%
Dodgers	18	1	0.235	2	11.11%
Giants	18	1	0.222	3	16.67%
Indians	20	0	0.105	3	15.00%
Mariners	18	0	0.294	2	11.11%
Marlins	18	2	0.267	6	33.33%
Mets	22	5	0.300	6	27.27%
Nationals	18	2	0.235	3	16.67%
Orioles	18	3	0.278	5	27.78%
Padres	16	3	0.500	6	37.50%
Phillies	16	2	0.231	6	37.50%
Pirates	18	3	0.294	4	22.22%
Rangers	18	3	0.235	6	33.33%
Rays	18	1	0.313	4	22.22%
Red Sox	18	1	0.176	2	11.11%
Reds	20	0	0.053	2	10.00%
Rockies	18	2	0.188	4	22.22%
Royals	18	0	0.000	3	16.67%
Tigers	18	2	0.250	2	11.11%
Twins	18	1	0.133	3	16.67%
White Sox	18	2	0.294	5	27.78%
Yankees	18	1	0.222	1	5.56%

The Astros were the only team he wasn't able to get the advantage against and the Padres were his favorite team to face with a .500 batting average. He also mashed 5 home runs against the Mets while no other team had more than 3 given up.

All in all this was tons of fun to do, and I was so anxious to look at all the numbers once I was done. From memory he started off really hot after 200 at bats had 26 home runs. There was a long stretch where he didn't hit a home run in over 45 plate appearances. His second half slump I believe is what led to his lower average and OnBase% because his after 200 plate appearances was .335OB% and .276AVG. Let me know what you guys think and for more showdown discussions follow me on twitter @mlbshowdowncup. Remember put Krush in your line up and watch how far that ball will travel