2019 Bot Set -- NL Central

 The 2019 Bot Set rolls on with my favorite division, the NL Central! If you play out a season or shortened season or tournament between complete teams, this division is going to be one of the most hotly contested! Of course, the St. Louis Cardinals ended up on top of the division with the third (or even fourth) best team on paper in real life -- while they're easily my least favorite team in baseball, but I have to respect the often unexplainable success created by the Cardinal way..... plus, Busch Stadium is my favorite ballpark! However, the Brewers and Cubs look like loaded squads, and the Reds have a phenomenal rotation plus a few great hitters. 

As a Brewers fan, I think we've got the best squad here, but really..... it's everyone but Pittsburgh's division to win!

Unfortunately, the Pirates do not have MVP McCutchin on the squad anymore, but the 2013-2015 Pirates are all *nice* showdown teams!

5. Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93)

Lineup: I hate to start negatively, but we have to highlight Diaz -- first time I've ever seen the Bot hand out a +0 catcher arm. Maybe he'll be a punt 10 pt bench guy, but he's got to be near the top of the "least likely to be drafted" list for most managers. There are some bright spots to this lineup -- Josh Bell has a very Troy Glaus-like card at 1B, Adam Frazier is an affordable yet solid 2B option, and I think Kevin Newman definitely finds a spot on someone's infield. Then in the outfield, Bryan Reynolds is very, very solid as an OB 9 and Starling Marte brings yet another fast OB 8 with a ton of xbh potency! Not the best lineup, but miles ahead of teams like Detroit.

Rotation: After solid Tier 3 Joe Musgrove, not a lot to like here. Chris Archer was not the guy that Pittsburgh thought he'd be for them after sending now TIER 1 Tyler Glasnow and star OF Austin Meadows to Tampa only one year earlier for him. Devastating trade. However, at least it's all Tier 4 guys, so Pitt could get lucky and win some games with good rolling... but it's not looking like they'll escape the basement in many sims, nor will many of these guys get drafted.

Bullpen: Felipe Vazquez unquestionably put up a great Showdown card in 2019; whether your league feels comfortable using or drafting him is another story. I think Clay Holmes is going to get picked for his no doubles card for "only" 120 points (relievers are expensive in 01 style) and I like the solid Tier 3 Liriano card. Honestly, most draftable is Stratton with that IP 2 for 10 points!

Overall: Definitely the worst team in this division, but a significant step up from Baltimore, Detroit and Miami. The points total reflects that, as Pittsburgh comes in at 4120 points!

4. Cincinnati Reds (75-87)

Lineup: Considering the bandbox they play in, I thought the Reds offense would be stronger in Showdown. Nevertheless, there's some guys who'll go in later rounds of a draft, just not many players who are "I am definitely targeting them in the first three rounds" kind of players. The best guy, to me, is definitely Eugenio Saurez. For less than 400 points, give me Sano-like OB 8, 15-20 HR power. That's elite 45 HR/600 PA power! Joey Votto may also see some rosters with a +1 1B card with solid OB for less than 200 pts. Jesse Winker brings a similar card, but with a bit more power and outfield flexibility. The two most controversial cards for drafting have to be the two OB 7 guys with massive power -- Dietrich and Aquino. Gotta love Aquino's 13-20 HR power... but risky to spend 370 pts on an OB 7. Dietrich has 15-20 HR pop with a 14 3B for 90 less points and 2B eligibility... he's going to tempt people late! Overall, not a very intimidating collection of hitters.

Rotation: The strength of the Reds and arguably the best rotation in the NL Central! Sonny Gray is a definite ace and will get early looks in drafts -- Tier 2, C4 with no doubles! He's supported by FOUR additional Tier 3 pitchers, including no doubles on Castillo's chart. Gausman rounds it out as a sixth starter. A really, really strong rotation.

Bullpen: There's enough here to protect any leads that the strong starting/low OB with pop lineup can give them! Two Tier 2 relievers here, both should be drafted, and then Iglesias is a solid-enough Tier 3 in the closer role. Garrett is risky as a C2, but no doubles on his card. 

Overall: Despite being 13 games under .500, the Reds Showdown team comes in at 5480 points! At 288 points per player (inflated due to the five stud starting pitchers imo), this squad is arguably better than the 91 win Cardinals on paper!! Regardless, the team reflects why Baseball Reference states that its Pythagorean W-L record was 80-82. If you play out a season with these teams, don't be surprised if the Reds make a run at the division title!

3. Chicago Cubs (84-78)

Lineup: The Cubs probably have the best lineup in the division, back when they had a core of Bryant-Rizzo-Baez-Schwarber-Castellanos-Contreras swinging the bat. If you don't mind the +5 catcher arm, Contreras is one of the best catchers in the set and brings solid power. He's not the only strong OB 8, as Schwarber brings 16-20 HR pop and doubles at 14, while Castellanos is doubling at 13!! Meanwhile, Rizzo is a solid OB 10 at only 410 points -- I know a lot of guys are going to target him as a solid 1B option. Bryant, for under 400 pts, has position flexibility and 18-20 HR pop on an OB 9 card. Like the Reds guys above, Baez will be a fascinating case on draft day. Absolutely elite defense (SS+6), speed A, 16-20 HR, 15 3B, 11-14 2B.... but he's an OB 7... for 410 pts. It's so hard to roster an OB 7 at star prices, but Baez may do enough in the field, on the bases, and on his chart to justify it. I think David Bote is more likely to get drafted as a solid 2B/3B OB 8 for only 240 pts. Jason Heyward also brings a solid OB 8, which lets the Cubs bring out seven OB 8 or better hitters, plus Baez at SS, in standard play -- a really good lineup! Hard to believe they fell to third in the division.

Rotation: The Cubs third-place finish is unfortunately explained by this rotation, despite it's POTENT 1-2 punch at the top with a pair of high control, Tier 2 aces in Darvish and Hendricks. After them, it's Tier 4 Lester, Hamels and Quintana, and that's not going to get the job done against some of the other squads in this division. 

Bullpen: Kintzler is the only Tier 2 in the bullpen, but there's a pair of Tier 3, no doubles pitchers who will almost certainly be rostered in drafts. Chatwood may see play depending on your reliever usage rules because he's a passable IP 2. Kimbrel is a hilarious example of the apparent closer bonus... sure he's Control 4, but 19-20 HR ON HIS OWN CHART?? Hard to believe he's not negative points, let alone that he's somehow worth 20 more points than Stratton on Pittsburgh. 

Overall: The Cubs come in at a stellar 5670 points (284 ppp). Their lineup is undoubtedly the strength, and if you're rolling well with that offense, there's no one in this division that can stop them... but this rotation's backend is going to give ground. Makes sense that they were a division and wild card contender the majority of the season, and if you replay it, I think you could make a case that the lineup + rotation 1-2 should put them into the favorite's role!

2. Milwaukee Brewers (89-73)

Lineup: The headliner of this lineup is the best hitter in the set -- Christian Yelich! OB 10, 17-20 HR, 15-16 2B, 13-14 1B+... with speed A and on at 4.... absolute stud! He's not carrying the lineup alone though, as there are several draftable studs in Milwaukee. 2B Hiura may be struggling in 2021, but his 2019 card is one of the best 2B options in the set at OB 9, double at 15, HR at 18. Then there's walk machine with power Grandal as a C/1B option for under 300 points with an OB 9, HR at 18. Thames and Moose keep the power going too, both for under 300 points too! Ryan Braun's also a likely pick as a 6 hitter for some drafter -- under 300 pts for a really solid OB 8 card. Really, the only weak link is SS, where Arcia is still likely going to be drafted purely for how cheap he is -- ideal punt player at 20 pts with passable defense. I think they've got an argument with the Cubs for best lineup in the division, even if they only have two hitters over 300 pts.

Rotation: "Tier 3 City" in Milwaukee's rotation, as all five starter cards are Tier 3 options. Woodruff is the only one with C4, no doubles, which makes him the "ace"... but let's be real, they're all capable of going 5 and giving up 2 on any night. I think the top four guys all get drafted, despite being IP 5 guys. The low IPs would concern me if the bullpen wasn't absolutely LOADED with talent.

Bullpen: As always, an absolutely stacked bullpen in Milwaukee and the backbone of the team. Even if he let them down in the wild card game, Hader brings a monstrous tier 1 card -- C5, 1-17 out and 4-14 K range! However, he's nothing compared to (such a small sample size I snuck him in as a Pennant Run card because its very, very arguable he shouldn't be included) Brent Suter -- a key part of their stretch run and a CONTROL 6, 1-18 OUT, IP 2 pitcher!!!! Of course, he's nearly unrosterable unless you play OG reliever rules since he's 640 points. The Crew also has Tier 2 Junior Guerra bringing a strong C5 card out, and IP 2 Drew Pomeranz is a solid fourth guy (even if his "reliever only" stats would have made him Hader 2.0). Definitely a strong 'pen thanks to the three guys at the top though.

Overall: The Brewers are the most expensive team in the division, coming in at 6190 points regularly (and 6830 points with Suter). Nevertheless, it feels like a toss-up between the Brewers and Cubs for best team in the division -- Brewers have more depth, especially in pitching, but the Cubs rotation has the two best starters and there's more stars in Chicago's lineup. As a Brewers fan, I'm giving Milwaukee the edge because I'm going to play with Suter (aka an unfair advantage), which pushes them waaaay over the top. At least we can all agree that, either way, both Milwaukee and Chicago are better than the irl division champs on paper.

1. St. Louis Cardinals (91-71)

Lineup: With only one hitter above an OB 8, the Cardinals lineup is a steep step down and looks much more like Cincy's lineup. Yadi Molina is far removed from top notch catcher cards, only bringing a +6 arm. Goldy doesn't have an OB 10, 18-20 HR card like he consistently produced in Arizona. That said, Wong and Edman are extremely draftable pieces from this team -- they do it all, especially super OB 8 Edman. I think Dejong gets some play too -- he brings nearly the same HR power as fellow OB 7, SS+6 Baez but for a fraction of the price. I think Jose Martinez and Matt Carpenter also get drafted by virtue of being super cheap OB 8 guys who get on base. Still, there's no super stars here like Milwaukee or Chicago.

Rotation: Something the Cardinals have that no one else in the division does -- superstar Jack Flaherty, arguably the best starter in the division. C5, 1-16 out no doubles, he's one of two Tier 2, no doubles starters in the division. However, unlike Sonny Gray in Cinci, Flaherty isn't supported by four additional Tier 3 starters. He's got Mikolas, a C3, Tier 3 guy.... and then a falloff to Tier 4 Hudson, C2 Wainwright and C0, 40 pt Wacha. Ouch!

Bullpen: St. Louis does have a stout 'pen to support the up and down rotation. Carlos Martinez is a sure-to-be-drafted stud closer. Gallegos is even better, bringing a Tier 1, C5 card to the 2019 set! Brebia gives them another Tier 2, C5 pitcher. Tyler Webb comes in with another Tier 2 card, and Gant has a Tier 3, Control 5 card for their FIFTH option. Indeed, I think St. Louis has unquestionably the best bullpen in the division if you don't give Milwaukee Suter. 

Overall: The Cardinals come in at a shockingly low 5510 points for a division winner -- only 30 points ahead of the fourth-place Reds (while averaging less points per player than Cincy). It seems clear they rode their bullpen to a lot of close wins in real life, and they'll have to copy that strategy to overcome their division rivals if you replay the year in showdown!

Ranked by Points -- So far:

1. Rays -- 7100 points (296 points per player)
2. Twins -- 6850 points (311 points per player)
3. Yankees -- 6540 points (297)
4. Nationals -- 6280 points (299)
5. Braves -- 6200 points (282)
6. Brewers -- 6190 (295) (6830 points (310) with PR Suter) 
7. Cleveland -- 6150 points (307)
8. Cubs -- 5670 points (284)
9. Red Sox -- 5620 points (281)
10. Cardinals -- 5510 (250)
11. Reds -- 5480 (288)
12. Mets -- 5280 points (278)
13. Phillies -- 4750 points (238)
14. White Sox -- 4680 (246)
15. Blue Jays -- 4190 points (220)
16. Pirates -- 4120 points (229)
17. Orioles -- 3660 points (183)
18. Marlins -- 3520 points (195)
19. Royals -- 3470 points (192)
20. Tigers -- 2650 points (147)