MLB Showdown 2017 Season: MIDWAY UPDATE

So I was originally going to try to post individual series recaps, but between churning out new cards and real life, I'm way too far behind. Thus, you're getting a "mid-way" update on the season... despite it being more like the 2/3 update. If you missed the original post explaining the league, quick update: all 30 MLB teams playing a 30 game schedule, with five guys each GMing one team per division. We each started with the players who were on the rosters of each team post-free agency. So the Yankees had Stanton, Cardinals had Ozuna, etc. etc., although their cards are based on their 2017 statistics. We also all had 10 minor league prospects (eventually will be explained in detail) and several contender teams gutted their farm systems for firepower while lesser teams tanked for more future potential. Now that we're over the halfway mark, I'm going to bring you: (1) Standings, with some discussion on the various division/wild card races, (2) Statistical leaders and award races/All Star thoughts, (3) Thoughts previewing the home stretch in the season.

Turner's leading our Majors in steals, leading off the Nats' lineup as Washington attempts to take advantage of a weak schedule for an unheard of 30-0 Showdown season! Whether they can do it is a hotly contested topic in our circle, but they're halfway there at 15-0!!!

STANDINGS: 

Overall, the expected contenders have definitely pulled away from the pack, leaving both the NL and AL as top heavy leagues. However, it's clear that at least one expected playoff team will be left home in each division! So here we go, first the NL and then the AL.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL EAST

The most clearly lopsided division in our Showdown league entering the season has lived up to billing, although Philly has managed to go 9-9 -- very impressive considering Washington's double sweep of them to start the year! If the Phillies keep beating up on their weak division opponents at the .750 rate they've been going at, they could finish 18-12 and very much alive for a wild card berth thanks to the beating the NL West contenders are putting on each other. Of course, DC is just mauling opponents and look like a surefire #1 seed. When we speculated that 30-0 was in the cards, we knew it'd be a longshot but now it feels like a REAL possibility. It definitely makes this putrid division featuring FOUR tanking teams (with one just getting wins because apparently someone has to) interesting down the stretch. 

NL CENTRAL

The Brewers absolutely took it to the Reds and the Cardinals to start the season an incredible 12-0. Their bats and bullpen have been the class of baseball so far, and whether or not it can continue is questionable -- they've got tough tests from the Twins and Cubs coming up. However, the Cubs have been very cold. Their pitcher's did not make great cards in 2017 due to higher ERA and WHIPs than usual, which combined with a lineup made of mainly OB 6s to be a fickle combination. The surprise of the division for a while was the Pirates, who jumped out to a 9-3 start before coming back to earth vs the Brewers and Cardinals (combined 3-9). St. Louis started 3-9, earning the title of "most disappointing team in Showdown, but will have a good chance to finish right at .500. Their pitching has been terrible, sadly not making up for a great lineup. Finally, the Reds have won more games (thanks to Votto and Winkler) than just about anyone expected and have a very bright future with their prospects. Overall, the Brewers magic number is 2 and they're looking to be locked into a playoff spot very, very soon!

NL WEST

Finally, a closely contested division. The Dodgers are currently bringing up third place to the Rockies and DBacks after splitting their opening six with the Rockies and then going 1-5 against the Angels in an incredibly close series, despite the results. Thus, LA was the best 4-8 team in baseball and surged back with a cleansing six games vs the Padres (tanking all the wayyyyy). With six games vs the Giants to get ready, we could easily see the climatic final six games being a showdown between 16-8 DBacks and 16-8 Dodgers. The team that gets the better of the other will surely be in the postseason, and it seems likely both will make it anyway, as long as Philly cools off. Meanwhile, the Rockies have survived against both LA and Arizona to led the division in Winning % and look to finish off their schedule against weak Texas and San Francisco. As long as they can go 8-4 (which should be a lock), they should be the surprising division winners! 

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL EAST

Just like real life, the Red Sox and Yankees are way ahead of the pack, with the Rays hovering around .500 as the Blue Jays and Orioles stink it up. Everything is setting up for an incredible final two series between Boston and New York for the crown, and I'm personally projecting they're both 20-4 heading into those series. The loser should make one of the Wild Card spots, barring an absolute insane double sweep that puts one of them at 20-10 or 19-11. Meanwhile, the Rays are the bad, tanking team that sort of just happened into wins. They probably won't stay at .500, but they're getting some good wins here and have plenty of minor league talent on the way. In the basement, Baltimore is a mess, both now and for the future. However, Toronto strategically is playing for next year after dealing away Josh Donaldson, Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, JA Happ, and Justin Smoak. They've got three of the top five MLB Prospects: Ohtani, Vlad Jr, and Victor Robles along with a plethora of other talented guys at a variety of positions. Honestly, this division could quickly flip with those guys, but until then it's just like the early 2000s/real life -- the Yankees and Red Sox's year!

AL CENTRAL

Another two team race has gone into overdrive in the Central, with the Twins and Indians headed towards a powerful showdown in the final six games. Let's just say the schedule makers figured out which two teams were likely in contention in most of these divisions.... and boy were they underestimating the Twins! Sure, they were an expected wild card contender, but they're leading the AL in winning %! However, they accumulated that record and incredible pitching performance (less than 2 runs per game as a staff!) against perhaps weakest hitting trio of division opponents: the Tigers, White Sox, and Royals. The White Sox are the bad team that's somehow managed some wins in this division, including a surprising 2-4 performance vs the Indians. Cleveland has been disappointing, going a "mere" 8-4 against the White Sox and Reds even though their pitching has been INSANELY GOOD -- even better than the Twins! Their offense has been putrid for large stretches, although some outbursts are responsible for their barely 4 runs per game average. Fortunately for Cleveland, they get six games vs Detroit while the Twins have to play 17-1 Milwaukee before the two teams have their epic showdown! Honestly, it's very likely they could be tied or Cleveland could be leading the division by the time they square off!

AL WEST

Just something about Western divisions and surprise division leaders! Like the Rockies, the Angels are the surprise frontrunner and prohibitive mathematical favorite to win the West. Led by an absolutely potent first five hitters, the Angels have been slugging teams into submission and only have the last place Rangers left on the schedule, and their magic number is three after topping the Astros four games to two in their series. At 9-3 vs the Astros and Dodgers, LA has to be considered a legitimate threat in the postseason, while the Astros are in serious danger of missing the postseason entirely thanks the high winning pairings of Boston-New York and Cleveland-Minnesota. As the biggest spending team, it just goes to show that points aren't everything in Showdown (especially when you've only got 30 games and that sample size is smaller). The Mariners were surprise quasi-buyers in the offseason, but they are realistically way farther behind the Astros than the standings suggest. However, with six games against the Padres to close the year, it's not far fetched for Seattle to finish 20-10 and maybe be a sneaky possibility for a Wild Card if (a) the Astros choke vs the A's and (b) the other two division's powers beat up on each other in a lopsided manner. Regardless, there will be some exciting, down-to-the-wire divisional and wild card races in the AL that aren't really happening in the National League.

STATISTICS:

For stats, there's too many to just post pictures, so I'm going to provide a link to view the Google Doc we've compiled statistics on, as well as describe some of the bigger picture stats and races happening right now.

So follow the link below to view our Google Doc featuring all the statistics and league leaders, including individual series stats:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cMa14Zjas917q_sIMSeqzvyiB8qDG9nmnVmQxdJG-1U/edit?usp=sharing

The key to navigating the document is through the bottom tab, with the primary team stats found in their respective divisions (so if you want to see the Nationals, check out the "NL East" tab, etc. etc.).

However, if you're not feeling like looking things up, here's a quick update on the races people care about:

Home Runs: Five players are tied for the MLB lead with 10 home runs, including the Angels Josh Donaldson and Justin Upton, Mariners Nelson Cruz and Mike Zunino, and the Phillies Rhys Hoskins. Trout, JD Martinez, and Stanton are all close behind with 9 homers. 

Batting Average: Currently, only four players in the entire league have a .400 or above batting average (honestly demonstrating how "realistic" the set is playing... after all, it's been 18 to 24 games, some guys hit over .400 for that stretch, but not TOO many). Paul Goldschmidt leads the way over Christian Yelich, Jose Altuve, and Joey Votto, with Trout in fifth place with a .398 average. However, as this is a Showdown league, I must note that Trout's leading the majors in OBP with a .538 OBP while on-base 10 Kris Bryant is second with a .509.

Other Fun Hitting Thoughts: The most off-the-wall stat so far has been Eric Thames leading the majors in RBIs, with 42. The next closest is Josh Donaldson at 31. Thames put up his staggering totals very similarly to real life: by absolutely murdering the Reds. Against Cincinnati, Thames and his OB 8, HR at 16 card went 7-14 with five homers... which gave him 19 RBIs in one 3-game stretch. It's a total anomaly and crazy that everything went right for Thames (3 HRs in his other 15 games) against the same team he destroys IRL! On a non-anomalous note, Trout is leading the league in runs, is only four steals behind the MLB lead for stolen bases, leads the majors in doubles, and has more walks than strikeouts. 

ERA and WHIP: Ah, the metrics that matter for pitchers (although Justin Verlander and Chase Anderson are tied for the MLB lead for wins with 5)... the best right now are really, really good, which makes sense with only four to six starts for starters right now. However, in an absolute shocker, Tier 4, number 4 starter for the Yankees after being acquired as an after thought Chad Kuhl is leading the majors with a 0.39 ERA right now. I think that'll change and Kluber, who's got a 0.45 ERA ends up winning the crown and the Cy Young. The Indians have such a good staff, with Kluber followed closely by Carrasco and his 0.69 ERA and trade acquisition Madison Bumgardner's 1.30 ERA. For WHIP, the leader is Blake Snell! We have a saying that "real life follows Showdown a scary amount of the time" and Snell has been further proof, having a career year in real life as he outperforms his card in our Showdown season as well.

Strikeouts: The K rates have been through the roof this season, very similarly to reality honestly, although we're going to temper our pitcher's K-ranges next year. This simulation has been a very helpful look at "how our cards reflect reality" and so far, they've been playing really, really accurately! But if there's one flaw -- a few too many Ks. Tied for the major league lead are actually four players with 68 Ks: Zach Grienke, Kluber, Robbie Ray, and Chris Sale. The fifth place guy is way back with "only" 58 Ks (Scherzer). There's a bunch of starters with K/9 rates climbing above 9, and just like reality, it seems like it's only going up!

Bullpen Leaders: With nine saves, Boston's Kimbrel is leading the way in the saves department while Brad Brach's five holds leads set up men. The best ERA guy is Houston's Chris Devenski (unlike real life) and his 0.41 ERA so far. The team with the best bullpen so far is probably Cleveland, which is super unlike real life. The Indians and Brewers led the league with only 7 runs surrendered from their bullpen all year, with the Twins giving up a mere 8 bullpen runs. 

Awards leaders -- through some light analysis, if the awards were handed out today I'd say that Trout would be the prohibitive AL winner. The National League is trickier, with surprising team's leaders like Rhys Hoskins and Charlie Blackmon getting serious consideration alongside guys like Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper. For the Cy Young, Corey Kluber would get my pick for going more innings and facing better starter competition than Kuhl, while the NL pick would be Clayton Kershaw and his ridiculous 0.76 ERA. We'll see if anything changes down the stretch!

FINAL THOUGHTS:

Honestly, the cards have played more "realistically" than I had hoped! Games are typically decided in 5-3, 6-4 type of games, with aces battles being lower scoring and sometimes games just turning into blowouts. Yes, the competitive balance in the league isn't there right now, but that was a deliberate tanking choice by managers that could really turn teams around this offseason through prospect development (here's looking at you Toronto, San Diego and Miami AKA the three teams I manage that are tanking up a storm). 

For the playoffs, it's insane to me that Houston is going to need some outside help to get in. Moreover, the Cardinals collapse to start the year shows the fun of baseball on a shortened season -- in such a streaky game, where every game means more, it can just get away from a team far too quickly. I'm personally excited for when competitive balance means going 20-10 is a fantastic year and most teams are just hovering around .500, leading to an incredible last few series of the season where maybe ten or so total teams are fighting for four wild card spots. 

I hope you had fun reading the update and exploring our stats on Google Doc! We'll have another big update when the season ends.... Would you guys be interested in doing some All Star voting? If so, with player names or blind ballots to make it "fair"? We're doing our All Star game between the regular season and the playoffs so there's maximum stats to draw from and differentiate, and it'll be a fun break before the epic postseason!

Feel free to leave thoughts below, especially if you have any predictions on season outcomes or fun stats you saw/noticed for a player or team that I didn't mention!