Sunday, March 31, 2019

MLB Showdown League -- SEASON 2 PREVIEW

It's back folks, the epic 30 team league using the MLB Showdown 2017 charts and prospects that have been previously discussed.  Going into this season, every team was limited to 5500 points.  Prospects are only a salary hit at 80% of their points (to homage the real life salary benefits of a rookie deal player and to give the teams that were bad a slight leg up).  Moreover, each team gets one player to "improve," aka transform from their 2017 card into their 2018 card.  For example, the Brewers turned Christian Yelich from an OB 9, HR at 19 player worth about 300 points into the 570 point, MVP-winning OB 10, HR at 18 player he is in the 2018 set!

This league is run and played by five individuals -- Peter, Michael, Kyle, Riley and Miles.  Each person "owns" a team per division, in order to incentivize going all out for each division crown. Season 1 was a 30 game season, but Season 2 will be 42 games...... for all 30 MLB teams! That's right, we've simulated 630 Showdown games, recorded all the stats, and now have posted them to the blog!

The Vlad Jr. card being used in our league -- Guerrero earned his "likely" card, which still makes him an absolute tank!

Now that you're widely caught up on the "what" of this league, here's a quick recap of what happened in season 1:

MVP: Mike Trout, Angels  (.412 avg, .538 OBP, 13 HR, 31 RBI, 43 R, 15 SB)
Cy Young: Corey Kluber, Indians (5-0, 0.56 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 107 K, 64.67 IP, threw a no-hitter)


MVP: Charlie Blackmon (.341 avg, .441 OBP, 10 HR, 9 3B, 27 RBI, 26 R, clutch hitting to help Rockies shock the world to win the NL West)
Cy Young: Max Scherzer (7-0, 1.24 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 115 K, 58 IP)

YEAR ONE PLAYOFFS:
AL Pennant: Astros
NL Pennant: Nationals

World Series: Astros defeated Nationals, 4 games to 2

You can read up on ALL the stats and playoff action from year one here!

Year Two -- PREDICTIONS and SET UP
As discussed in depth here, the teams loaded up with prospects and added free agents/upgrades from the 2018 set heading into year two.  The result is 30 loaded teams, each with legitimate hopes at the postseason!  I'm going to take you division by division with some of the big additions, upgrades, and owner predictions!

All the rosters are available for observation here 

Quick reminder of which players own which teams:

Peter: Blue Jays, Indians, Angels, Marlins, Brewers, Padres
Riley: Orioles, White Sox, Astros, Mets, Reds, Rockies
Michael: Yankees, Royals, Rangers, Braves, Pirates, DBacks
Kyle: Red Sox, Tigers, Mariners, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers
Miles: Rays, Twins, A's, Nationals, Cubs, Giants

AL EAST
Best Upgrade: Mookie Betts, OF Boston
Most exciting prospect: Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH Toronto
Biggest Signing: Josh Hader, RP Tampa Bay
Biggest Trade: NYY RP Chad Green for MIL SP Jhoulys Chacin

 
New Rays reliever Josh Hader (being paid 620 points) and Red Sox 2B Brian Dozier.


Peter's Predictions:
(1) Toronto
(2) Boston
(2)Tampa Bay
(4) New York Yankees
(5) Baltimore

Riley's Predictions
(1) New York Yankees
(2) Tampa Bay
(2) Toronto
(4) Boston
(5) Baltimore

Michael's Predictions
(1) Boston
(1) New York Yankees
(1) Toronto
(4) Tampa Bay
(5) Baltimore

Kyle's Predictions
(1) Toronto
(2) Boston
(3) Tampa Bay
(4) New York Yankees
(5) Baltimore

Thoughts: This is going to be a wild and competitive division! Each owner projected at least 23 wins for all four of the contenders in the AL East (except Peter, who projected a sub-.500 record for the Yankees).  The Blue Jays are the slight favorite due to their incredible lineup, bolstered by OB 10, HR at 17 Vlad Guerrero Jr, peak Victor Robles, and OB 10 Bo Bichette. With ace Shohei Ohtani leading the rotation too, they seem like the top team around. The Rays look like they're going the opposite of Blue Jays hitting heavy approach by embracing their rotation and bullpen. Teaming Tier 1, IP 2 Hader with Tier 1 Sergio Romo should be lethal.  The Red Sox return their team from last year and traded for more power, sacrificing Chris Sale to claim OB8, HR at 16 Brian Dozier. The Yankees still have incredible power in the lineup and some good bullpen arms, but their low control starting pitching may doom them.

AL CENTRAL
Best Upgrade: Francisco Lindor, SS Cleveland
Most exciting prospect: Eloy Jimenez, LF/RF Chicago White Sox
Biggest Signing: The entire Royals rotation (spent 2520 points have AL's best rotation)
Biggest Trade: MIN 2B Brian Dozier and SP Jose Berrios for SP Chris Sale and 2B Dustin Pedroia



The Royals signed the above rotation for an incredible 2520 points

Peter's Predictions:
(1) Cleveland
(2) Chicago White Sox
(2) Minnesota
(4) Kansas City Royals
(5) Detroit

Riley's Predictions
(1) Cleveland
(2) Chicago White Sox
(3) Minnesota
(4) Detroit
(5) Kansas City

Michael's Predictions
(1) Cleveland
(2) Minnesota
(3) Kansas City
(4) Chicago White Sox
(5) Detroit

Kyle's Predictions
(1) Cleveland
(2) Minnesota
(3) Kansas City
(4) Detroit
(5) Chicago White Sox

Thoughts: The Indians are the clear frontrunner again and its easy to see why, as their rotation and bullpen bring everybody back from last year's 25-5 squad.  Add that to upgraded Lindor and a stud Jose Ramirez and the lineup looks just good enough to hit some of the new, impressive pitching staffs in the division.  The Twins added Chris Sale to their bevy of Tier 3 starters and the Royals/Tigers both added multiple aces.  However, due to the overpaying done by other teams, the other lineups just aren't as impressive as Cleveland.  As such, I think we're all expecting the Indians to cruise and probably end up with the best record in the AL. However, if you're looking for a surprise, Jimenez is instantly the best hitter (player??) in the AL Central and could power the White Sox to a playoff spot.



AL WEST
Best Upgrade: Alex Bregman, SS/3B Houston Astros
Most exciting prospect: Forest Whitley, SP Houston Astros
Biggest Signing: Gio Gonzalez, SP Texas Rangers for 900 points
Biggest Trade: HOU SS Carlos Corea for OAK 2B/SS Franklin Barreto


     
The Astros and A's get a couple of stud upgrades to the left side of their infield for Year 2!

Peter's Predictions:
(1) Houston
(1) Los Angeles Angels
(3) Seattle
(4) Texas
(5) Oakland

Riley's Predictions
(1) Los Angeles Angels
(2) Houston
(3) Texas
(4) Seattle
(5) Oakland

Michael's Predictions
(1) Houston
(2) Los Angeles Angels
(3) Texas
(4) Seattle
(5) Oakland

Kyle's Predictions
(1) Houston
(2) Los Angeles Angels
(2) Texas
(4) Seattle
(5) Oakland

Thoughts: The AL West has two frontrunners in LA and Houston.  Houston is the defending World Series champ, and while they had to lose over 800 points in salary to get under the cap, they've still got a lethal balance of offense and pitching.  LA, meanwhile, returns all of its "fab five" hitters that helped the Angels lead the AL in runs and wins in Year One. The rotation remains solid and the bullpen is steady enough to keep them in contention.  The Rangers are probably the next best squad and have the potential to contend for a Wild Card slot if the Gio Gonzalez signing works out! Seattle and Oakland seem over-matched.

NL EAST
Best Upgrade: Mike Foltynewicz, SP Atlanta; Trevor Story, SS Miami; Brandon Nimmo, OF NYM
Most exciting prospect: Ronald Acuna, Jr, LF/RF Atlanta
Biggest Signing: Max Muncy, 1B/3B Miami for 900 points
Biggest Trade: PHI C Perez, SP Gonsalvez, 1B Ryan McMahon, RP Tommy Hunter for
                         BOS C Vasquez, SP Berrios, 1B Jose Abreu, RP Scherff



 The NL East brings in a ton of fresh, upgraded talent for the Year 2 season, especially the 900 point Muncy!

Peter's Predictions:
(1) Atlanta
(2) Washington
(3) Philadelphia
(4) New York Mets
(5) Miami

Riley's Predictions
(1) Washington
(2) Atlanta
(3) New York Mets
(3) Philadelphia
(5) Miami

Michael's Predictions
(1) Atlanta
(1) Washington
(3) Philadelphia
(4) Miami
(4) New York Mets

Kyle's Predictions
(1) Atlanta
(2) Washington
(3) Philadelphia
(4) New York Mets
(5) Miami

Thoughts: Probably the clearest two-horse race in baseball, the NL East pits Year One's most dominate regular season team and NL Pennant winners against the clear winners of the Prospect rolling -- Nationals vs Braves!  The Nationals still have their Scherzer/Strasburg punch at the top, but no longer have a third Tier 2 starter.  Their lineup is also down an OB 10 hitter, as Rendon is playing for Philly now.  The Braves, meanwhile, have two Tier 2 starters of their own and an incredible THREE starters with IP 7.  Most impressive is (probably) the best player in baseball, peak potential Ronald Acuna Jr.  His success could definitely be the difference for the team! Meanwhile, the Mets and Phillies are just hoping they scrounge up enough wins here and there to be in wild card contention late, while the Marlins hope for miracles with an absolutely terrible bullpen.

NL CENTRAL
Best Upgrade: Christian Yelich, OF Milwaukee Brewers
Most exciting prospect: Hunter Greene, SP Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Signing: Chris Devinski, RP Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Trade: (Year One) SF C Buster Posey for MIL SP Corbin Burnes, SP Brandon Woodruff, 3B Lucas Erceg, SP Luis Ortiz, OF Bret Phillips


Yelich gets his MVP card, which should be dominate. 
Meanwhile the Reds add a dominate IP 2 reliever to their 'pen for 530 points 


Peter's Predictions:
(1) Milwaukee
(1) St. Louis
(3) Cincinnati
(4) Chicago Cubs
(5) Pittsburgh

Riley's Predictions
(1) Milwaukee
(2) Cincinnati
(2) St. Louis
(4) Pittsburgh
(5) Chicago Cubs

Michael's Predictions
(1) Milwaukee
(2) Cincinnati
(2) St. Louis
(4) Pittsburgh
(5) Chicago Cubs

Kyle's Predictions
(1) Milwaukee
(2) St. Louis
(3) Cincinnati
(4) Pittsburgh
(5) Chicago Cubs

Thoughts: I'm surprised the Brewers were unanimously chosen as division winners thanks to the major upgrades in St. Louis and Cincinnati.  Both teams have absolutely lethal lineups that'll push Milwaukee and its super bullpen to the limit.  There's been talk that the Brewers will punt their #4 starter and use "bullpen games" on each 4th game, pitching the Control 6, 1-16 out Albers the first three innings, Control 5, 1-17 out, IP 2 Chad Green the next three, and then using Control 5, 1-16 out Brad Hand and Control 5, 1-17 out Corey Knebel to shut the door.  Honestly, it's a horrifying idea for opposing lineups, especially with the lethal new Yelich in a lineup with no hitters with an on-base lower than 8. Cubs and Pirates are after thoughts, although Pittsburgh's rotation has potential.

NL WEST
Best Upgrade: Aaron Nola, SP Colorado Rockies
Most exciting prospect: Fernando Tatis Jr, SS San Diego Padres
Biggest Signing: Mike Clevinger, SP San Diego Padres
Biggest Trade: ARI SP Zach Grienke, LF/RF David Peralta for STL LF/RF Tyler O'Neil and LF Tommy Pham


Tatis is essentially the insane Alex Rodriguez 01> card that always wins MVP and Clevinger is a stud Tier 3 
that doesn't give up many extra base hits, so the Padres are optimistic this season!

Peter's Predictions:
(1) Los Angeles Dodgers
(1) San Diego
(1) San Francisco
(4) Arizona
(5) Colorado

Riley's Predictions
(1) Los Angeles Dodgers
(2) Arizona
(2) San Diego
(4) San Francisco
(5) Colorado

Michael's Predictions
(1) San Francisco
(2) Los Angeles Dodgers
(3) Arizona
(4) San Diego
(5) Colorado

Kyle's Predictions
(1) Los Angeles Dodgers
(2) San Francisco
(3) Arizona
(4) Colorado
(5) San Diego

Thoughts: Probably the most difficult division to forecast, mainly due to Kyle's inability to roll successfully with the Dodgers (the best team on paper).  Arizona and Colorado both made the postseason last year and largely stood pat this offseason, with Arizona slightly improving its rotation's control and adding some big time power in Tyler O'Neil while Colorado added more pop and Tier 2 Aaron Nola as a bonafide ace.  However, the massive prospect success of both San Diego and San Francisco has created two young contenders with different styles.  The Padres should score bunches of runs and have a solid rotation/bullpen with two Tier 2 guys.  Meanwhile, the Giants feature three Tier 2 starters, giving them the best rotation in baseball! With a loaded bullpen too, scoring 3 runs a game may be enough for them!  Overall, this division is crazy hard to pick, as you can see from the great variation in projections from our experts!

AWARD and PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS
AL MVP
Peter: Shohei Ohtani, SP/DH Toronto Blue Jays
Riley: Alex Bregman, Houston
Michael: Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
Kyle: Mookie Betts, Boston

AL Cy Young
Peter: Trevor Bauer, Kansas City
Riley: <3 Dylan Bundy <3, Baltimore
Michael: Blake Snell, Tampa Bay
Kyle: Shohei Ohtani, Toronto

AL Rookie of the Year
Peter: Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
Riley: Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
Michael: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Toronto
Kyle: Vlad Guerrero Jr., Toronto

NL MVP
Peter: Christian Yelich, Milwaukee
Riley: Nolan Arenado, Colorado
Michael: Christian Yelich, Milwaukee
Kyle: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta

NL Cy Young
Peter: Kyle Wright, Atlanta
Riley: Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Michael: Aaron Nola, Colorado
Kyle: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers

NL Rookie of the Year
Peter: Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego
Riley: Nick Senzel, Cincinnati
Michael: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta
Kyle: Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta

PETER'S PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
NL Play-in Games: Washington defeats Los Angeles Dodgers; San Diego defeats Cincinnati; Washington defeats San Diego

AL Play-in: Los Angeles defeats Houston for AL West in game 43

AL Wild Card: Tampa Bay defeats Boston
NL Wild Card: St. Louis defeats Washington

ALDS: (4) Tampa Bay defeats (1) Toronto; (3) Los Angeles Angels defeats (2) Cleveland
NLDS: (1) Milwaukee defeats (4) St. Louis; (3) San Francisco defeats (2) Atlanta

ALCS: (3) Los Angeles Angels defeat (4) Tampa Bay
NLCS: (1) Milwaukee defeats (3) San Francisco

WORLD SERIES: Los Angeles Angels triumph over Milwaukee


RILEY'S PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
NL Play-in Game: Cincinnati over St. Louis
AL Play-in Game: Tampa Bay over Toronto

NL Wild Card: Cincinnati over Atlanta
AL Wild Card: Houston over Tampa Bay

NLDS: (1) Washington over (4) Cincinnati; (2) Los Angeles Dodgers over (3) Milwaukee
ALDS:  (4) Houston over (1) Cleveland; (2) New York Yankees over (3) Cleveland

NLCS: (1) Washington over (2) Los Angeles Dodgers
ALCS: (2) New York Yankees over (4) Houston

World Series: Washington out-patriots the Yankees


KYLE'S PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS
AL Play-in Games: Los Angeles Angels over Texas; Los Angeles Angels over Boston

AL Wild Card: Minnesota over Los Angeles Angels
NL Wild Card: Washington over St. Louis

ALDS: (1) Toronto over (4) Minnesota; (2) Houston over (3) Cleveland
NLDS: (4) Washington over (1) Atlanta; (2) Los Angeles Dodgers over (3) Milwaukee

ALCS: (1) Toronto over (2) Houston
NLCS: (4) Washington over (2) Los Angeles Dodgers

WORLD SERIES: Washington overcomes Toronto!



 A few of the stars from the preseason favorite Washington Nationals! The 1-2 punch in the rotation gives them a huge advantage in the postseason.

Sound off, let me know your predictions/thoughts!  Any thoughts on prospects, free agency as a concept, and trading?  I hope you enjoy, definitely go up and check out all the rosters that are linked in the article and (as always) enjoy the cards we sprinkled throughout!

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