This is possible because the engine is much more open than in video games, for example, and because it is relatively simple: an at-bat is determined by two rolls of a 20-sided die, one for the pitch and one for the swing. Therefore, we have a total of 20x20 = 400 possible outcomes of an at-bat between a given batter and a pitcher. By figuring out every possible outcome, we can calculate expected stats for that at-bat.
I designed a simple tool in Google Sheets that will do this calculation and calculate some of the basic hitting stats. I included a link to the tool at the bottom of this blog.
The tool has three parts, each on their own sheet:
1) Hitter vs Pitcher: This is the basic tool, where one batter and one pitcher are entered in and the stats are calculated.
2) Hitter Comparison: Here, one pitcher is entered and up to five batters are compared. In the default version, I use the average pitcher card for the 01 set.
3) Pitcher Comparison: Similar to Hitter Comparison, except in this case one batter is entered and up to five pitchers are compared. In the default version, I use the average hitter card for the 01 set.
The Hitter vs Pitcher sheet is shown below. For all sheets, the blue and green regions are where card data should be entered, and the red and orange regions are not to be touched.
The first region, shaded in blue, is where the pitcher's card is entered. For this example I used the top started from the 2001 set, Pedro Martinez. The important inputs are his Control (+5) as well as his chart. He has 17 outs and allows 1 walk and 2 singles, while allowing 0 doubles or homers, so all of these numbers are inputed. Keep in mind that the input should be given as the number of results, so his 19-20 single is inputed as "2".
The second region, in green, is where the hitter's card is entered. Here I used Todd Helton's 2001 card, one of the top hitter cards in the set. His On-Base and chart are entered, in the same form as Pedro's. Note that single+ and singles are combined together for now.
The orange region is the difference between On-Base and Control, and is calculated automatically.
The last region, in red, is where the stats pop out automatically after the cards are entered. The top line is per 400 plate appearances, which results from rolling every possible combination of pitch and swing once. The bottom is per 600 plate appearance, to more simulate a full MLB season of at bats from that player.
The number of outs, walks, singles, doubles, triples, and homers are given. To the right of these columns are his rate stats: batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and wOBA. The latter is calculated using the weights from the 2000 MLB season.
The second sheet is the Hitter Comparison tool. Here, one pitcher is used, and up to 5 batters are compared. Once again, the blue region is where the pitcher's card is entered, the green where the hitters are entered, the orange is the On-Base - Control difference, and the red the outputted stats, for 400 PA.
For this comparison, I used the stats for the average pitcher from the 2001 set. This results in decimals for the outputted stats, but is the best way to compare hitters for roster building. The average pitcher can also be replaced with a different average that fits your league better, or can be replaced with a specific pitcher to determine what lineup to use. For example, if you are about to face Randy Johnson (C3, 17 outs), your ideal lineup may be different than if you are facing Greg Maddux (C6, 15 outs).
For the hitters, I chose five of the top hitters in the set: Helton, Carlos Delgado, Jason Giambi, Mark McGwire, and Barry Bonds. Each have their own advantages: Helton has a chart with many hits compared to walks, Delgado and Giambi are OB11s, and McGwire and Bonds have large home run ranges.
As expected, McGwire and Bonds have the most HRs, averaging 33.9 per 400 PA vs the average 2001 pitcher. Helton has by far the best batting average (.351), while Giambi leads in OBP (.465). Bonds has the highest slugging percentage, and ties with Delgado in OPS. By wOBA, Delgado has a slight lead over the other four.
The final sheet is the Pitcher Comparison.
Five of the top 2001 pitchers were compared in the blue region: Pedro, Greg Maddux Kevin Brown, Tom Glavine, and Randy Johnson.
In the green region, I used the average 2001 hitter, but he can be replaced with whatever hitter you want to use.
Again, the orange region shows the On-Base - Control difference.
The red region outputs the stats, per 400 PA. As expected, Pedro leads in every rate stat. Maddux and Brown are the 2nd and 3rd best pitchers here, with wOBA giving Brown the slight edge.
The link to this tool can be found here. Feel free to copy to your own Google Drive to modify it for whatever comparisons you want to make, or to add in more stats to calculate. Hopefully it helps you with quick calculations for roster construction!
i hadnt noticed you on the blog before, so if this is you first post, Welcome Aboard!!!! if not, my bad lol, but this is amazing thanks for the insight adn sharing with everyone.
ReplyDeleteThese cards are great. You have to do the rest of the NBA
ReplyDeleteWould be cool if there was also a tool where put in a player's stat line and it spits you out the fitting card.
ReplyDeletei wouldn't do anything else for days if i could just plug player stats into such a tool
DeleteWorking on that - takes a lot more effort though but will try to get that updated.
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