The NL East is clearly going to be dominated by the Washington Nationals. While the Phillies looked like they could become a wild card contender, their GM chose to go the seller route instead, leaving the gate wide open for Washington. How long Washington's dominance will extend is a hard question, with the Braves and Marlins owning well-stocked minor league systems. But for 2018, look out for Washington to take the division.
Note: Click on the spreadsheet pictures for a clear, unobstructed, larger view of the player's charts.
Team Previews:
Atlanta Braves
Projected Record: 12-18
Hitting:
While Inciarte adds speed and a good chart, followed by a solid OB 9 in Tyler Flowers, the Braves have an undeniably weak lineup. The biggest move the Braves made this offseason was also the one that hurt this lineup the most: trading star 1B Freddie Freeman. Although they currently have only a dreadful Albert Pujols to show for it, they did add the Angels' numbers 2, 3, 4, and 5 prospects to give their future extra brightness. As for the now, they're likely going to struggle to score, especially against teams like Washington. However, with Ronald Acuna leading the charge, the year 2 version of the Braves could be a fearsome offense.
Pitching:
The Braves starting pitching is not great, but at least it is well balanced. With a salary of 1380 (excel adding error in the screenshot), they'll throw out a competent starter each game. Former Cub Jose Quintana was added in the offseason, but Atlanta is probably hoping four of the several top 100 prospects they have as potential starting pitchers pans out enough to completely revamp and improve the rotation next season. Meanwhile, the bullpen is the team's strength. Winkler and Freeman will likely see interest at the next trade deadline, while Vizcaino may be the team's (likely sole) All Star by season's end.
Miami Marlins
Projected Record: 10-20
Hitting:
Starlin Castro and JT Realmuto are the only potential trade chips left on the Marlins, whose GM continued Derek Jeter's fire sale, albeit with greater return than the maligned Jeter received for the incredible outfield he sold off last winter. Greg Bird has one of the craziest OB 4 charts around, while the team hopes Lewis Brinson improves remarkably in the offseason (he's their top prospect). Morales takes over for Martin Prado at DH after the Marlins amicably agreed to help the Blue Jays and Angels get a monster deal done by making that swap. They also have all-or-nothing SS Trevor Story after dealing Miguel Rojas to the Rockies. Frankly, it'll be a brutal year in Miami, with the Marlins projected to reach double digit wins by the sole graces of their tragically bad division. However, with 18 prospects amassed in the minors, there's bound to be *some* good fortunes ahead for the Marlins!
Pitching:
The Marlins rotation is terrible. From a SP who gives up two doubles, to a tier 5 with a bad control, to a couple tier 4 SPs who not only give up multiple extra base hits, but are both susceptible to HRs off their own chart! The bullpen is only slightly better. Ziegler will undoubtedly frustrate on his own chart, while Tazawa is not someone who should ever face the heart of a good order. God help that manager that sends him out vs Washington's arsenal of OB 10s. Barraclough is their best pitcher and will probably be used a lot this season. Don't be shocked if he leads the majors in IP for a reliever.
New York Mets
Projected Record: 12-18
Hitting:
The Mets definitely have the best top four or five hitters of any non-Nationals team in the NL East. Unfortunately, they're also strong contenders for the absolute worst 7-8-9 hitters in the game. Why their GM didn't try to add to this team rather than sell off pieces like their former OB 8 2B Cabrera is beyond me, but this close-to-contending level team is still (at least) two significant bats away from having a playoff caliber lineup. However, Michael Conforto should make the All Star game, with Cespedes, Frasier, and Bruce having a chance to make it by virtue of power alone if they can beat up on their weak divisional rival's rotations. The surprise of the bunch may be Jose Reyes, who has a surprisingly electric and useful card for under 200 points and an on-base of 6.
Pitching:
If this rotation could use all cards from a couple seasons ago, it'd be the best in baseball. The rotation is anchored by Noah "THOR" Syndergaard, one of the best SP in the league. They add him paired with Jacob DeGrom, but traded him in a practically negligent heist to Boston. Rumors swirl that the Mets GM wanted to help the Yankees rivals, allowing himself to be swindled out of a great starter for fairly weak prospects and Porcello. They also made a deal with the Mariners that landed them a washed up King Felix. Matt Harvey was truly awful last season, giving them a terrible #4 starter. The bullpen does have a couple of studs in it, with Swarzak and Blevins both sure to see tons of action this year while bailing out the HR prone starters.
Philadelphia Phillies
Projected Record: 14-16
Hitting:
Rhys Hoskins had an absolutely phenomenal rookie campaign and produced an incredible Showdown card out of it. He's actually the best raw hitter in the NL East according to the 2017 Showdown stats, and will try to power the Phillies to a Wild Card spot. However, it'll be challenging after their GM gutted the team for prospects, choosing to be sellers because "there's no way we're beating the Nationals." That quitter's attitude sent OB 9 stud free agent signing Carlos Santana to Colorado, and solid OF Aaron Altherr to Houston. Now, the Phillies have a miserable line-up 4 thru 9 and a guy who should be a six or seven hitter batting third. However, since they're already selling, they may have the most valuable second-trading-time piece in 2B Cesar Hernandez, a dynamic leadoff guy with a great glove and elite speed.
Pitching:
The Phillies once had Tier 3 Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta, but their quitting has sold off those dependable starters to Colorado and Minnesota for more risky options. They're really crossing their fingers that Sixto Sanchez, Stephen Gonsalves, Riley Pint, and Adonis Medina reach at least expected potentials to give them a much improved rotation for season 2. Meanwhile, their bullpen is ready made for contention, with even the weakest pitcher Neris providing good value with a huge K range. Pat Neshek is an elite bullpen arm and Hunter/Garcia will be a great combo. The Phillies should end up being the best non-Nats team this year by virtue of winning close games late behind these solid bullpen arms.
Washington Nationals
Projected Record: 25-5
Hitting:
What an incredible upgrade from all the pedestrian to flat-out terrible lineups else where in the division. Trea Turner may be a controversial lead-off choice, but his incredible speed and fantastic chart all but guarantees he'll be on second base if he gets on, which should be over 30% of the time in this trashpile of a division. Bryce Harper is a surefire MVP candidate, and he'll be protected in the leadup by a pair of OB 10s. They're followed by a couple of power hitting titans in Justin Smoak and Ryan Zimmerman. The Nats acquired Smoak and C Russell Martin from the Blue Jays, loading up the lineup just enough to keep up with other pennant contenders, specifically the Dodgers. Adam Eaton is hitting 7th, but could easily be the leadoff man. For any other team in this division, he'd probably bat 3rd. Kendrick is the best 8th hitter in the division by a long shot and Martin should provide enough occasional pop to ensure there's not a single easy out.
Pitching:
The Nationals entered the season as the only team with three Tier 2 starting pitchers on their staff. Then they traded Tanner Roark for Aaron Sanchez and solidified one of the best rotations in all of baseball. Scherzer and Strasburg should be legitimate Cy Young candidates, while Gio could absolutely dominate these low OB lineups with his chart. The bullpen is without flaws, and includes a truly dominant option in Ryan Madson.
Honestly, with how easy this division lines up for them, the 25-5 prediction may be too modest. In fact, our computer calculations give the Nationals a 17% chance of getting through the regular season completely undefeated, with their toughest tests being a series against Philly and the one game they'll play against Noah Syndergaard. While it's doubtful they will go 30-0, the fact that it seems plausible given the fickleness of Showdown rolling demonstrates (a) how bad their division is, and (b) what an error to sell it was for the Phillies and Mets. In the end, Washington fans won't complain, as they have the easiest path to a playoff berth of anyone in baseball.
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