Saturday, November 9, 2019

ALL DECADE REDS

Cincinnati has gone through a lot this decade. From soaring hopes to the bottom of the NL Central to being a darling in the analytic models despite a sub .500 season, the Reds fans have experienced it all..... except a postseason series victory. For the All Decade teams, Cincinnati can definitely feel good about itself! We're now halfway through the rollout and the Reds are definitely in the upper half of teams so far! However, I think most fans will be underwhelmed initially due to our classic preference for Control and On-Base ... but take a gander at these charts and take a second to think "man, all they need are 3-4 charts in a game to do some REAL damage." Will it lead to postseason success for the Reds? Or will they end up behind their NL Central rivals once more? More importantly, what do you think??

The stellar Canadian slugger Joey Votto is always a win, putting together consistently awesome cards throughout the Decade
Lineup: The Reds lineup is basically a "tale of thirds." People are going to have no quibbles with the top third of the lineup, as it's filled with guys perfect for their roles. Choo spent one year in Cincy, but he put up a GREAT year and a near-perfect leadoff man card. He's an OB 10, he's got speed, he's on at 3, and he's got good defense/extra-base pop. Following him is a sneaky good Zach Cozard -- remember this wild season?? Cozart puts up an OB 10 with a plethora of doubles, triples, and homers... with A speed to boot! Definitely a great #2 hitter, who's followed up by one of the best hitting cards in the All Decade group here: 2010 Joey Votto. With an OB 11 card that STILL has XB pop at 15 and A speed, I believe Votto will contend for the OBP and RBI crowns in the All Decade league. However, the next third may draw some "mehs" from readers. Well, hopefully not for Suarez, one of the most powerful 3B cards of the decade! However, these three OB 9 guys may seem disappointing after all the 5/6 OB 10 lineups we've seen -- but they're awesome cards!! Suarez homers at 16, while Winker and Mesoraco have 2B at 15, HR at 18 cards that'll provide steady, steady production. Moreover, to get such pop out of the catcher spot is rare, even in this league! However, the spot people will really (unfairly) discount Cincy is the back third, due to the OB 8, 7, 7 cards. Yes, those guys are going to rarely get their charts against the mammoth amount of C5 and C6 pitchers around... but it will happen sometimes, and then Aquino (13-20 HR) is going to RAKE. Rounding the lineup out is the solid and speedy Brandon Phillips, who edged out Scooter and Dietrich in the fan vote for 2B.












Rotation: Continuing the theme of this team, the Reds rotation is.... better than you think at first glance! Cueto is basically MLB Showdown 00 Randy Johnson, a risky card against so much OB, but also capable of some epic performances. Cueto also won't *need* to go 8 IP thanks to the deep bullpen. He's supported by C6, Tier 2 Mike Leake -- a classic type of card on these All Decade rotations. A third Tier 2 comes next, with 2019 Sonny Gray! The Reds loaded up with new starting pitchers this offseason and, while the season was a dismissal one, at least Gray put up an awesome card and gives the Reds some hope moving forward! Rounding it out is the no doubles allowed Mat Latos, who's got high control and a tier 3 with a possible 7 IP if the bullpen is gassed.







Bullpen: I can't explain how Aroldis Chapman was a mere 170 points in the 2014 set, but I can safely say he's the best value RP card in Showdown. A tier one with huge K range and no doubles, Aroldis is a fitting version of his 105 MPH hurling self. The Reds support him with four Tier 2 relievers, including a dominant IP 2 card in Alfredo Simon. They've got another C4, no doubles guy in Sean Marshall, who was always one of my building blocks late in drafts with the 2011/12 sets I first received from Colby. Rounding out the 'pen is the two Tier 2 relievers with the classic C6 charts! Hernandez and Hoover (beautifully made by Matthew P, I think the 2015 Reds may be the best looking squad in the 01 style) give them a truly potent bullpen top to bottom. While this set of relievers doesn't provide the surplus of Tier 1 guys as other bullpens, it has five very capable and deserving pitchers and no weakness, leading up to a top notch closer.







Overall, the Reds come in at 7220 points! That is.... honestly, very surprising while going through the team but then again -- there's no real weakness here beyond having OB 7 guys, but they're also both extremely powerful and, therefore, expensive cards for 8/9 hitters. The rotation also costs over 2200 points, adding some OOMPF to the team. The Reds will be an interesting experiment, kind of flying in the face of conventional Showdown "get as much high OB and as much Control as possible" by rolling out lots of guys with incredible charts instead. We'll see how it works, they feel to me like a "hover around .500 club", but as of halfway through the All Decade rollout, they're the #3 team in the NL by points!

  1.   Dodgers             8010 points
  2.   Yankees             7920 points
  3.   Nationals           7670 points
  4.   Astros                7420 points
  5.   Reds                   7220 points
  6.   Blue Jays           7140 points
  7.   Rockies              7090 points
  8.   Rays                   7060 points
  9.   Indians               6880 points
  10.   (T9) Mariners   6880 points
  11.   Orioles               6830 points
  12.   Giants                6800 points
  13.   Marlins              6750 points
  14.   Tigers                 6710 points
  15.   Royals                6570 points

1 comment:

  1. Finally got it all entered, now time to do some analysis!

    Batters:
    Votto's card comes in at a studly 6.49 expected runs, a fifth of a run ahead of his 2017 card. Cozart's 2017 Trade Deadline card comes in ahead of the card you have due to 20 speed vs. 18 and the ability to play two positions but they're the same chart. Suarez's 2018 card actually comes in just ahead of his 2019 card by .22 expected runs, with his 2019 card coming in at 5.15. Winkler's 2018 card nudges his 2019 card due to the 10 OB, even without a HR on his own chart- though it's only by .08 runs. Puig's 2019PR card bumps Aquino by a half run, with Aquino coming in at 4.17 runs. This lineup is anchored by Votto and doesn't have as much fall off as you might expect, however they don't have the depth that some of the other all decades teams have.

    Rotation: 4/4 Agreement here, although I have Gray slotting in as #2 at 5.78 expected runs, .03 behind Cueto. This gives them two really solid options, and Leake comes in just above 6 and Latos at 6.38 rounding it out. These guys should be able to keep games relatively tight.

    Bullpen:
    Same guys, different order! Chapman tops the bullpen at 4.9 expected runs which puts him significantly ahead of everyone else. Simon is second at 5.63 runs which is identical with Marshall, but he gets the bump due to the extra IP he has (innings weighted he's just ahead of Chapman actually). Hernandez and Hoover are identical cards and so both come in at 6.02 expected runs.

    Overall this team is definitely behind the heavy weights, however they have just enough talent to keep it competitive and possibly sneak into a playoff spot.

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